Green growth and post-growth are alternative concepts for transformative change. I investigated the amount of support each enjoys among sustainability scholars by performing a global expert survey (n = 461), in which scholars from around the world evaluated what future pathways they would prefer for different country income groups. Support for post-growth was substantial for high-income (77%) and upper-middle-income countries (59%) for the 2020s, while green growth was the most preferred pathway for lower-middle-income (64%) and low-income (58%) countries. Support for post-growth increased from 2020s to 2030s. On average, preferred future GDP rates were at or above 0% and at or below past average GDP rates regardless of context. I found an interaction between pathway preference and familiarity with post-growth, which helped explain desired future GDP rates in the context of high-income countries. Around 60% of the participants considered GDP to be a bad indicator of societal well-being. My results call for more emphasis on targeted transformational change in research, education, and policymaking, with particular focus on facilitating post-growth approaches for affluent countries. This could help societies find a safe and just way to secure global sustainability.

绿色增长和后增长是转型变革的替代概念。我通过一项全球专家调查 ( n = 461)，其中来自世界各地的学者评估了他们对不同国家收入群体更喜欢的未来途径。到 2020 年代，高收入 (77%) 和中高收入国家 (59%) 对后增长的支持很大，而绿色增长是中低收入 (64%) 和低收入国家最喜欢的途径-收入 (58%) 国家。对后增长的支持从 2020 年代增加到 2030 年代。平均而言，无论背景如何，首选的未来 GDP 率都等于或高于 0%，并且等于或低于过去的平均 GDP 率。我发现路径偏好与对后增长的熟悉程度之间存在相互作用，这有助于解释高收入国家背景下预期的未来 GDP 率。大约 60% 的参与者认为 GDP 是衡量社会福祉的糟糕指标。我的研究结果呼吁更加重视研究、教育和政策制定方面的有针对性的转型变革，特别关注促进富裕国家的后增长方法。这可以帮助社会找到一种安全和公正的方式来确保全球可持续性。