This paper examines how resilience capacity mediates or moderates the relationship between weather shocks and household food security based on two waves of farm household survey and satellite-based weather data in northern Ghana and applying econometric models. Results show that resilience capacity moderate or mediates the negative effects of heat stress and drought on food security. However, the mediating role of resilience capacity in the shock-food security nexus is more stable and stronger than its moderating role. A standard deviation (SD) increase in heat stress reduces household food consumption by 0.71 SD, but resilience capacity effectively moderates this effect by approximately 0.61 SD. For drought, household food consumption is reduced by 0.67 SD, but resilience capacity effectively dampens this negative effect by approximately 0.60 SD. The mediation results, on the other hand, indicate that 537% of the total effect of heat stress on household calorie consumption is explained by the indirect effect through resilience capacity. Similarly, resilience capacity mediates about 74% of the total effect of heat stress on household food consumption. These results suggest that strategies that help improve resilience capacity, such as the adoption of sustainable intensification practices, are critical in enhancing food security in northern Ghana.

本文基于加纳北部两波农户调查和基于卫星的天气数据，并应用计量经济学模型，研究了弹性能力如何调节或缓和天气冲击与家庭粮食安全之间的关系。结果表明，恢复能力缓和或调节热应激和干旱对粮食安全的负面影响。然而，抵御能力在冲击-粮食安全关系中的中介作用比其调节作用更稳定、更强。热应激的标准差 (SD) 增加会使家庭食物消费减少 0.71 标准差，但弹性能力有效地缓和了这种影响约 0.61 标准差。对于干旱，家庭食物消费减少了 0.67 个标准差，但弹性能力有效地将这种负面影响抑制了大约 0.60 个标准差。另一方面，调解结果表明，热应激对家庭卡路里消耗的总影响中有 537% 可以通过弹性能力的间接影响来解释。同样，在热应激对家庭食品消费的总体影响中，恢复能力约占 74%。这些结果表明，有助于提高复原能力的战略，例如采用可持续集约化做法，对于加强加纳北部的粮食安全至关重要。