Drought risk assessment can identify high-risk areas and bridge the gap between impacts and adaptation. It is thus vital to investigate changes in drought risk and exposed social economy under climate change. Here, the future global meteorological drought risk is projected for the 2021–2100 period under four combined scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. And then the exposed population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) under high risk are analyzed. Drought risk will further strengthen in the future under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, with large increases distributed in South Asia, the Mediterranean, East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central America. The strongest increasing trends in drought risk are concentrated in equatorial regions including South Asia, West Africa, and Central America. A large percentage of the population and economy are exposed to high drought risk. The exposed population under the highest risk level is the largest under SSP5-8.5 and the smallest under SSP3-7.0 for regions in North America, while being the largest under SSP3-7.0 for other regions. The exposed GDP under the highest risk level is the highest under SSP5-8.5 and the lowest under SSP3-7.0, while the disparity among diverse scenarios is larger for the rich regions than the developing ones.

中文翻译：

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预测各种 SSP-RCP 情景下的全球干旱风险

干旱风险评估可以识别高风险区域并弥合影响与适应之间的差距。因此，研究气候变化下干旱风险和暴露的社会经济的变化至关重要。此处，在代表性浓度路径和共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 的四种组合情景下，即 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5，预测了 2021-2100 年期间的未来全球气象干旱风险。 . 然后分析了高风险下的暴露人口和国内生产总值（GDP）。未来SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5干旱风险将进一步增强，增幅较大分布在南亚、地中海、东亚、东南亚和中美洲。干旱风险最强劲的增长趋势集中在赤道地区，包括南亚、西非和中美洲。很大一部分人口和经济面临着高度干旱风险。最高风险等级暴露人群在北美地区SSP5-8.5下最大，SSP3-7.0下最小，其他地区在SSP3-7.0下最大。最高风险水平下的GDP暴露在SSP5-8.5下最高，在SSP3-7.0下最低，而富裕地区的不同情景差异大于发展中地区。5，北美地区 SSP3-7.0 下最小，而其他地区 SSP3-7.0 下最大。最高风险水平下的GDP暴露在SSP5-8.5下最高，在SSP3-7.0下最低，而富裕地区的不同情景差异大于发展中地区。5，北美地区 SSP3-7.0 下最小，而其他地区 SSP3-7.0 下最大。最高风险水平下的GDP暴露在SSP5-8.5下最高，在SSP3-7.0下最低，而富裕地区的不同情景差异大于发展中地区。