We evaluated the battery material demand and GHG emissions implications from high EV and very aggressive Plug-in Hybrid EV (PHEV) penetration rates for the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet from 2020 to 2050. If the U.S. relies primarily on EV deployment to decarbonize passenger transport, there are potentially significant supply constraints over the next decade, particularly for cobalt, lithium, and nickel. Very aggressive PHEV deployment has the potential to reduce GHGs and with ∼80% lower demand on critical metals. Recycling can play a major role reducing metal demand in the long-term but until 2035, shifting to an iron-based battery cathode reduces critical metal use by more than recycling would but with higher charging emissions due to increased weight. Increasing recycling, shifting battery chemistry, and adopting low-carbon electricity for battery production can avoid 250 million tonnes CO₂e in cumulative GHG emissions from 2020 to 2050 (equivalent to 15% of U.S. transportation sector's 2020 GHG emissions).

我们评估了从 2020 年到 2050 年美国轻型车队的高电动汽车和非常激进的插电式混合动力电动汽车 (PHEV) 渗透率对电池材料需求和温室气体排放的影响。如果美国主要依靠电动汽车部署来使乘客脱碳运输，未来十年可能存在严重的供应限制，尤其是钴、锂和镍。非常积极的 PHEV 部署有可能减少温室气体排放，并且对关键金属的需求减少约 80%。从长远来看，回收可以在减少金属需求方面发挥重要作用，但在 2035 年之前，与回收相比，转向铁基电池阴极可以减少关键金属的使用，但由于重量增加，充电排放量会增加。增加回收，改变电池化学，₂ 2020 年至 2050 年累计温室气体排放量（相当于美国交通部门 2020 年温室气体排放量的 15%）。