Predictive policing, that is, the data-driven deployment of police operations on the ground, has become increasingly important in recent years. While predictive policing instruments serve to formalise the ways in which police think and operate, the human agent remains central to their exploitation and translation into strategic, operational, and tactical decision-making. The introduction of predictive policing instruments and methods therefore represents a particularly insightful terrain on which to analyse negotiations of formality and informality. How this plays out in the Swiss context will be addressed in this paper. Based on a review of documents and policies on predictive policing developments and exploratory interviews conducted with police officers and developers, we discuss how institutions and actors engage with predictive policing and what this tells us about the formalisation, respectively informalisation of police work. Our findings point to the challenges related to the federalist organisation of police in Switzerland and the growing importance of cantonal threat management (Bedrohungsmangement) platforms. We also note a general lack of awareness regarding the potentially harmful outcomes of predictive policing instruments, which may be related to a specifically Helvetic narrative that downplays the impact these instruments have on decision-making.

近年来，预测性警务，即以数据驱动的实地警察行动部署，变得越来越重要。虽然预测性警务工具有助于规范警察思考和运作的方式，但人类代理人仍然是其利用和转化为战略、行动和战术决策的核心。因此，预测性警务工具和方法的引入代表了一个特别有见地的领域，可以在其上分析正式和非正式的谈判。本文将探讨这在瑞士的背景下如何发挥作用。根据对预测性警务发展的文件和政策的审查以及对警官和开发商进行的探索性访谈，我们讨论了机构和参与者如何参与预测性警务，以及这告诉我们关于警察工作正规化和非正规化的内容。我们的调查结果指出了与瑞士联邦制警察组织相关的挑战以及各州威胁管理 (Bedrohungsmangement) 平台日益重要的问题。我们还注意到人们普遍缺乏对预测性警务工具潜在有害结果的认识，这可能与淡化这些工具对决策的影响的特定 Helvetic 叙述有关。我们的调查结果指出了与瑞士联邦制警察组织相关的挑战以及各州威胁管理 (Bedrohungsmangement) 平台日益重要的问题。我们还注意到人们普遍缺乏对预测性警务工具潜在有害结果的认识，这可能与淡化这些工具对决策的影响的特定 Helvetic 叙述有关。我们的调查结果指出了与瑞士联邦制警察组织相关的挑战以及各州威胁管理 (Bedrohungsmangement) 平台日益重要的问题。我们还注意到人们普遍缺乏对预测性警务工具潜在有害结果的认识，这可能与淡化这些工具对决策的影响的特定 Helvetic 叙述有关。