Global population growth and climate change challenge food security severely, and adopting appropriate fertilization strategies to guarantee food production under climate change is uncertain. This research studied the crop yield and soil organic carbon (SOC) in peas-wheat-potato rotation system under four fertilization regimes (viz. unfertilized control (CK), applied mineral nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer (NP), applied sheep manure (M), and applied NP+M (MNP)) through an 18-year field experiment combined with the DeNitrification-DeComposition biogeochemical modeling. We observed that MNP had the highest yield, the average total crop yield of pea, wheat and potato was 5784, 4735, 3240 and 1481 kg ha^-1 respectively in MNP, M, NP and CK. Manure application improved SOC significantly, it was 7.08, 7.51, 3.47 and 2.92 g kg^-1 respectively in MNP, M, NP and CK at the end of the field experiment. Under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 climate projection (2022–2100), in all four climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5), the yield order was MNP > M > NP > CK, and there was a significant difference in the average total yield of pea, wheat, and potato among treatments. Under future climate, the pea yields were higher than that in the historical period (2004–2021); the wheat yield in CK was similar to the historical period but it was higher in NP and M and lower in MNP than historical period. Moreover, the potato yield in MNP was slightly lower than that of the historical period but it was significantly higher in M and lower in NP and CK than historical period. Comparatively, MNP had higher yield stability and sustainability than NP, both under historical and future climate conditions. Fertilization reduced the yield response to growing-season precipitation under historical climate, while combined fertilization reduced the yield response to annual precipitation and average temperature in future climates. In addition, SOC increased in all treatments under the future climate scenarios and the effect of manure was significant, but the increase rate retarded as the climate scenario increase and time over. These results suggested that the combined application of manure and mineral fertilizer contributed to mitigating climate change’s impact on crop yields.

全球人口增长和气候变化对粮食安全构成严峻挑战，采取合适的施肥策略保障气候变化下的粮食生产存在不确定性。本研究研究了四种施肥方式（即不施肥控制（CK）、施用无机氮磷肥（NP）、施用羊粪（M））下豌豆-小麦-马铃薯轮作系统的作物产量和土壤有机碳（ SOC ） , 并通过 18 年的现场实验结合反硝化-分解生物地球化学模型应用了 NP+M (MNP))。我们观察到 MNP 的产量最高，豌豆、小麦和马铃薯的平均总产量分别为 5784、4735、3240 和 1481 kg ha ^-1分别在 MNP、M、NP 和 CK 中。施用粪肥显着改善了 SOC，分别为 7.08、7.51、3.47 和 2.92 g kg ^-1田间试验结束时分别在MNP、M、NP和CK。在Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 climate projection (2022-2100)下，在所有四种气候情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）中，产量顺序为MNP > M > NP > CK，豌豆、小麦和马铃薯的平均总产量在各处理之间存在显着差异。在未来气候下，豌豆产量高于历史时期（2004-2021）；CK的小麦产量与历史时期相似，但NP和M的小麦产量高于历史时期，而MNP的小麦产量低于历史时期。此外，MNP 的马铃薯产量略低于历史时期，但 M 的马铃薯产量显着高于历史时期，NP 和 CK 的马铃薯产量低于历史时期。相比之下，MNP具有更高的产量稳定性和可持续性比 NP，无论是在历史和未来的气候条件下。施肥降低了历史气候下产量对生长季降水的响应，而复合施肥降低了产量对未来气候年降水量和平均温度的响应。此外，SOC在未来气候情景下所有处理均有所增加，粪肥的影响显着，但随着气候情景的增加和时间的推移，增加速度有所放缓。这些结果表明，粪肥和矿物肥料的结合施用有助于减轻气候变化对作物产量的影响。