ABSTRACT

In April 2022, flooding and associated geohazards caused major loss of life and extensive damage in the greater Durban region and large areas of the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) coastal zone. Heavy rainfall that triggered the flooding and mass movement events was reported in national and international media as having ‘smashed weather records’. However, no systematic and up-to-date flood record exists for KZN to allow the April 2022 floods to be viewed within their full historical context. This study presents an historical geographic account of flooding in KZN, with a particular focus on the greater Durban region. The flood record expands upon available databases held by the South African Weather Service, drawing on missionary accounts, newspapers and personal diaries to identify all significant flood events in KZN since the mid-nineteenth century. We document 53 significant flood events from 1850-1899 (average ~1.1 per annum) and 210 from 1900-2022 (average ~1.7 per annum). Within the limits of our data, we suggest that the frequency of flooding in Durban has likely doubled over the last century. Our research confirms that the April 2022 floods were likely the most catastrophic natural disaster yet recorded in KZN, in collective terms of lives lost and overall economic impact.

摘要

2022 年 4 月，洪水和相关的地质灾害在大德班地区和夸祖鲁-纳塔尔 (KZN) 沿海地区的大片地区造成重大人员伤亡和广泛破坏。引发洪水和群众运动事件的强降雨被国内和国际媒体报道为“打破天气记录”。但是，KZN 没有系统的和最新的洪水记录，无法在完整的历史背景下查看 2022 年 4 月的洪水。本研究介绍了 KZN 洪水的历史地理记录，特别关注大德班地区。洪水记录扩展了南非气象局现有的数据库，利用传教士的记述、报纸和个人日记来确定自 19 世纪中叶以来 KZN 发生的所有重大洪水事件。我们记录了 1850-1899 年的 53 次重大洪水事件（平均每年约 1.1 次）和 1900-2022 年的 210 次（平均每年约 1.7 次）。在我们的数据范围内，我们认为德班的洪水频率在上个世纪可能翻了一番。我们的研究证实，就生命损失和整体经济影响而言，2022 年 4 月的洪水可能是 KZN 有记录以来最严重的自然灾害。