The biophysical foundations of socio-economic systems are underrepresented in the vast majority of macroeconomic models. This lack is particularly troublesome when considering the links between energy, matter and the economy in the context of the energy transition. As a remedy, we present here a biophysical stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model calibrated at the global scale, that combines detailed bottom-up estimates for the high capital intensity of renewable energies and the decreasing energy return on investment (EROI) of fossil fuels. We find that the completion of a global energy transition scenario compatible with the 1.5 °C objective of the Paris Agreement leads to a decrease of the system’s EROI and to high investment share, employment and inflation trends, characteristic of a “war economy”. Our results further indicate that a slower growth rate eases the transition, and call for further work on post-growth scenarios studies.

社会经济系统的生物物理基础在绝大多数宏观经济模型中都没有得到充分体现。在能源转型的背景下考虑能源、物质和经济之间的联系时，这种缺乏尤其麻烦。作为一种补救措施，我们在此提出了一个在全球范围内校准的生物物理存量流量一致的宏观经济模型，该模型结合了对可再生能源的高资本密集度和化石燃料的能源投资回报率 (EROI) 下降的详细自下而上估计。我们发现，完成符合《巴黎协定》1.5 °C 目标的全球能源转型情景会导致系统的 EROI 下降，并导致高投资份额、就业和通胀趋势，这是“战争经济”的特征。