Aiming at the navigation congestion of water conservancy projects, the shipowner’s psychological mechanism and behavior evolution are embedded into the dynamic model, which explores the evolution law using empirical data. The structural equation model (SEM) was constructed based on four variables: Shipowner personality, waiting time perception, congestion charging experience and anchorage environmental facilities (AEF). Taking the Three Gorges Project as an example, the influence relationship and degree are empirically tested. Then the dynamic evolution process was simulated by using the system dynamics (SD). The results suggest that the waiting time perception and congestion charge can weaken the shipowner’s intention, while the anchorage environment facilities can enhance the intention. The different personality characteristics will bring different effects, and the waiting time perception is the key intermediary. The psychological cost determines the dynamic evolution. Adjusting the factor can help the ship transfer between the navigable building and turning over the dam, realizing the balanced “double-channel” and alleviating navigation congestion.

针对水利工程通航拥堵问题，将船东的心理机制和行为演化嵌入到动态模型中，利用实证数据探索演化规律。结构方程模型 (SEM) 是基于四个变量构建的：船东性格、等待时间感知、拥堵收费经验和锚地环境设施 (AEF)。以三峡工程为例，对其影响关系和程度进行实证检验。然后利用系统动力学（SD）模拟动态演化过程。结果表明，等待时间感知和拥堵费可以削弱船东的意愿，而锚地环境设施可以增强意愿。不同的性格特征会带来不同的效果，等待时间的感知是关键的中介。心理成本决定动态进化。调整系数有利于船舶在通航建筑物与翻坝之间的调动，实现平衡的“双通道”，缓解通航拥堵。