Promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption through subsidies represents a commonly used policy lever for decarbonizing the light-duty vehicle sector. However, it is unclear how the subsidy cost-effectiveness has evolved over time and whether further subsidization is needed to induce adoption beyond wealthy consumers. We explore these questions by assessing the federal PEV subsidy program in the United States. To do so, we extend Sheldon and Dua, 2019a, Sheldon and Dua, 2019b work by using the same approach on large-scale U.S. new vehicle buyer survey data. While results averaged over fuel-types suggest that PEV subsidies are becoming less impactful and costlier over time, detailed model-level exploration reveals that it is due to an increasing share of higher-priced BEVs such as Teslas. The model-level subsidy impact has not changed much over time. Moreover, if the subsidies had been discontinued in 2017, half of the below median income (90 K USD) new vehicle buyers would not have adopted a PEV, highlighting the need to continue the subsidies. The findings hold significance for policymakers worldwide on how to design effective PEV subsidy programs.

通过补贴促进插电式电动汽车 (PEV) 的采用是轻型汽车行业脱碳的常用政策杠杆。然而，目前尚不清楚补贴的成本效益如何随着时间的推移而演变，以及是否需要进一步的补贴来吸引富裕消费者以外的人采用。我们通过评估美国的联邦 PEV 补贴计划来探讨这些问题。为此，我们扩展了Sheldon 和 Dua，2019a，Sheldon 和 Dua，2019b通过对大规模美国新车购买者调查数据使用相同的方法进行工作。虽然对燃料类型的平均结果表明，随着时间的推移，PEV 补贴的影响越来越小，成本也越来越高，但详细的模型级探索表明，这是由于特斯拉等高价 BEV 的份额越来越大。随着时间的推移，模​​型级别的补贴影响没有太大变化。此外，如果补贴在 2017 年停止，半数低于中等收入（9 万美元）的新车购买者将不会采用 PEV，这凸显了继续补贴的必要性。这些发现对全球决策者如何设计有效的 PEV 补贴计划具有重要意义。