In just the last three years, since 2020, manufacturing plans for producing electric vehicles (EV) and batteries have surged. We relate them to four EV sales scenarios towards 2035 in the UC Davis Transportation Transition Model, with different EV shares of total light-duty vehicle sales. In each scenario, we estimate production capacities and investments needed. By comparing announced capacities to EV sales targets, we find that in the most ambitious scenario where US achieves 66% EV sales by 2030, the planned 5.1-million EV production falls short by over half; with tentative plans included, the gap closes to 4.6 million. In a less rapid scenario (40% by 2030), tentative plans are sufficient. Needed investments across these scenarios range from $20 to $143 billion, compared to current firm and tentative commitments of $75 to $108 billion, respectively. Investments will likely evolve to scale up production, increasing the chance of achieving higher-ambition targets.

在过去的三年中，自 2020 年以来，生产电动汽车 (EV) 和电池的制造计划激增。我们将它们与加州大学戴维斯分校交通运输转型模型中到 2035 年的四种电动汽车销售情景相关联，电动汽车在轻型汽车总销量中的份额不同。在每种情况下，我们都会估算所需的生产能力和投资。通过比较宣布的产能与电动汽车销售目标，我们发现，在美国到 2030 年实现 66% 电动汽车销量的最雄心勃勃的情景中，计划的 510 万辆电动汽车产量比一半还少；加上暂定计划，缺口接近460万。在不太快的情况下（到 2030 年达到 40%），暂定计划就足够了。这些情景所需的投资从 20 美元到 1430 亿美元不等，而目前的确定和暂定承诺为 75 美元到 1080 亿美元，分别。投资可能会演变为扩大生产规模，从而增加实现更高目标的机会。