This paper mainly checks the predictability of geopolitical risk (GPR) from export and import oil countries for oil futures volatility using dynamic model average and dynamic model selection methods. Empirical results show that information of GPR indices of both export and import oil countries can predict oi futures volatility. Applying DMA and DMS models can further improve the forecasting accuracy of oil futures volatility. This paper tries to provide new evidence for oil futures from the perspectives of oil export and import countries.

中文翻译：

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石油进出口国地缘政治风险与石油期货波动：来自动态模型平均方法的证据


本文主要采用动态模型平均和动态模型选择方法检验进出口石油国家的地缘政治风险（GPR）对石油期货波动的可预测性。实证结果表明，石油出口国和进口国的GPR指数信息可以预测石油期货的波动性。应用DMA和DMS模型可以进一步提高石油期货波动的预测精度。本文试图从石油出口国和进口国的角度为石油期货提供新的证据。