We analyze the predictive content of climate risks, proxied by change in global temperature anomaly and its volatility, on a dummy variable capturing periods of zero and negative growth rates of eight industrialized countries. In this regard, we apply a Probit model to longest possible historical datasets available for these countries covering 1311 till 2020, and control for inflation and interest rates. We find strong evidence that changes in global temperature anomaly and/or its stochastic volatility in particular, tend to predict slowdown or stagnation in all the eight economies at the different predictive horizons considered.

中文翻译：

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八个世纪以来发达国家经济放缓的可预测性：气候风险的作用


我们通过捕捉八个工业化国家的零增长率和负增长率时期的虚拟变量，分析了以全球温度异常变化及其波动性为代表的气候风险的预测内容。在这方面，我们将 Probit 模型应用于这些国家（涵盖 1311 年至 2020 年）可用的最长历史数据集，并控制通货膨胀和利率。我们发现强有力的证据表明，全球温度异常的变化和/或其随机波动尤其倾向于预测所有八个经济体在所考虑的不同预测范围内的经济放缓或停滞。