Existing research has identified numerous explanations for why some civil wars last longer than others. Yet, the type of labor that state militaries recruit has remained unexplored in this context. We consider how a state's military personnel system affects its ex post decision to keep fighting. We argue that conscription renders access to military labor relatively easy and, thus, less expensive. As military wages fall, war becomes less costly, the production of military power becomes more labor intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination declines. In a volunteer force, in contrast, military labor is relatively scarce and, therefore, more expensive. Accordingly, war becomes more costly, the production of military power becomes more capital intensive, and the hazard of conflict termination rises. These effects are reinforced as a conflict persists, leading to an increased divergence in duration across conscripted and volunteer militaries. We test these contentions using a global sample of civil wars, finding robust support for each expectation. We also validate the underlying mechanisms linking conscription to protracted conflict in two illustrative cases. Our results highlight the importance of labor-side determinants of war duration and contribute to a growing literature that explores how the composition of military forces affects conflict dynamics.

中文翻译：

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被迫延长：征兵、军事劳动成本和内战持续时间

现有研究已经确定了为什么有些内战比其他内战持续时间更长的许多解释。然而，在这种情况下，国家军队招募的劳动力类型仍未得到探索。我们考虑一个国家的军事人事制度如何影响其事后继续战斗的决定。我们认为，征兵使获得军事劳动变得相对容易，因此成本更低。随着军人工资的下降，战争的成本变得更低，军事力量的生产变得更加劳动密集，冲突终止的风险下降。相比之下，在志愿部队中，军工相对稀少，因此也更加昂贵。相应地，战争的成本变得更高，军事力量的生产变得更加资本密集，冲突终止的风险增加。随着冲突的持续，这些影响得到加强，导致应征入伍和志愿军的持续时间差异增加。我们使用全球内战样本来检验这些论点，为每个期望找到强有力的支持。我们还在两个说明性案例中验证了将征兵与长期冲突联系起来的潜在机制。我们的结果强调了战争持续时间的劳工方面决定因素的重要性，并有助于越来越多的文献探讨军队的构成如何影响冲突动态。我们还在两个说明性案例中验证了将征兵与长期冲突联系起来的潜在机制。我们的结果强调了战争持续时间的劳工方面决定因素的重要性，并有助于越来越多的文献探讨军队的构成如何影响冲突动态。我们还在两个说明性案例中验证了将征兵与长期冲突联系起来的潜在机制。我们的结果强调了战争持续时间的劳工方面决定因素的重要性，并有助于越来越多的文献探讨军队的组成如何影响冲突动态。