An important managerial challenge is understanding consumers’ reactions to stockouts of a desired product―will they stay brand loyal or switch to competing brands? We posit that consumers are more likely to prefer substitutes from the same brand when a stockout is unexpected (vs. expected). This tendency arises as consumers feel greater negative affect upon encountering an unexpected stockout, which leads them to choose alternatives that provide greater affective value to ameliorate their negative feelings. Since the brand is a relatively affect-rich attribute compared to common non-brand attributes (e.g., price and quantity), consumers facing an unexpected stockout are more likely to choose a same-brand substitute. Five studies illustrate the effect and support the process by demonstrating that unexpected stockouts do not result in brand loyalty when non-brand attributes offer greater affective value than the brand. We further show that managers systematically mispredict how consumers’ expectations of stockouts relate to brand loyalty.

一个重要的管理挑战是了解消费者对所需产品缺货的反应——他们会保持品牌忠诚度还是转向竞争品牌？我们认为，当缺货意外发生（与预期相比）时，消费者更有可能更喜欢同一品牌的替代品。这种趋势的出现是因为消费者在遇到意外缺货时感到更大的负面影响，这导致他们选择提供更大情感价值的替代品来改善他们的负面情绪。由于与常见的非品牌属性（例如价格和数量）相比，品牌是一个相对富有影响力的属性，因此面临意外缺货的消费者更有可能选择同品牌的替代品。五项研究通过证明当非品牌属性提供比品牌更大的情感价值时，意外缺货不会导致品牌忠诚度，从而说明了这种影响并支持了这一过程。我们进一步表明，管理者系统性地错误预测了消费者对缺货的期望与品牌忠诚度之间的关系。