The outlook of crude oil prices has sparsely been empirically examined especially from the critical perspectives of energy expenditure per household, retail electricity prices, and environmental indicators. Given the enormous macroeconomic and socioeconomic effects of crude oil price amidst the fundamentals, this study examines the dynamics of the oil price outlook amidst energy demand (measured by energy expenditure per household), retail electricity price i.e., substitute price, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the United States of America (USA) over the period 1970 to 2040. This study offers two main innovations: first, it extends the bivariate nonparametric Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR) to the multivariate case. Second, the analysis incorporates projected data series, which provides useful policy insights. The empirical results show evidence of time-varying effects of energy expenditure per household, retail electricity price, and CO₂ emissions across the quantiles of crude energy prices. The results further show that the effect of energy demand through household energy expenditures is positive and stronger at the lower quantiles of crude oil price, which corresponds to periods of low crude oil prices. Furthermore, the effects of retail electricity price and CO₂ emissions are negative and stronger in the mid-quantiles of crude oil price. This suggests that retail electricity prices and environmental indicator dampen crude oil prices during periods of low crude oil prices. These findings are robust to multivariate Quantile regression and Kernel-based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) estimates. Therefore, our study suggests time-varying policies to dampen the effects of energy demand, retail electricity price, and environmental indicator on crude oil prices in the USA.

对原油价格前景的实证研究很少，尤其是从每户能源支出、零售电价和环境指标等关键角度来看。鉴于原油价格对基本面的巨大宏观经济和社会经济影响，本研究考察了能源需求（以每户能源支出衡量）、零售电价（即替代价格）和二氧化碳（CO _2个) 1970 年至 2040 年期间美利坚合众国 (USA) 的排放量。这项研究提供了两个主要创新：首先，它将双变量非参数分位数对分位数回归 (QQR) 扩展到多变量案例。其次，该分析结合了预测数据系列，提供了有用的政策见解。_{实证结果表明，每个家庭的能源支出、零售电价和 CO 2}排放量在粗能源价格的分位数之间具有时变效应。结果进一步表明，通过家庭能源支出产生的能源需求效应在原油价格较低的分位数处是正的且更强，这与原油价格低的时期相对应。_{此外，零售电价和 CO 2}的影响在原油价格的中间分位数中，排放量为负且更强。这表明零售电价和环境指标在原油价格低迷时期抑制了原油价格。这些发现对多变量分位数回归和基于内核的正则化最小二乘法 (KRLS) 估计具有稳健性。因此，我们的研究建议采用时变政策来抑制能源需求、零售电价和环境指标对美国原油价格的影响。