Between the 1940s and 1970s, Spain used a variety of economic policies that hindered international trade. Because the mix of tariffs, quotas, administrative barriers, and exchange rate regimes varied greatly over time, the quantification of the effect of the various trade policies on international trade in this period is particularly elusive. In this paper, we use historical bilateral trade flows and a structural gravity model to quantify the evolution of Spain's border thickness, a summary measure of its barriers to international trade. We find that Spain's borders in the period 1948–75 were thicker than those of any other country in Western Europe, even after the liberalization of trade that started in 1959. These comparatively higher impediments to international trade implied substantial negative effects on consumer welfare. We estimate that accumulated welfare costs over the period 1948–75 exceed 20 per cent of a year's total consumption.

中文翻译：

---

佛朗哥统治下西班牙的自给自足：封闭经济的代价

20世纪40年代至1970年代，西班牙采取了多种阻碍国际贸易的经济政策。由于关税、配额、行政壁垒和汇率制度的组合随时间变化很大，因此这一时期各种贸易政策对国际贸易影响的量化尤其难以捉摸。在本文中，我们使用历史双边贸易流量和结构引力模型来量化西班牙边境厚度的演变，这是对其国际贸易壁垒的概括衡量。我们发现，即使在 1959 年开始贸易自由化之后，西班牙在 1948-75 年期间的边界比西欧任何其他国家的边界​​都要厚。这些相对较高的国际贸易障碍意味着对消费者福利的重大负面影响。