ABSTRACT

Significance judgements lie at the heart of EIA and provide the basis and justification for overall decision-making. Although the subjective nature of significance judgements is widely recognized, there has been limited research aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of its implications. This paper builds on the growing tradition of exploring learning from psychology in dealing with challenges in EIA practice, in this case, significance judgements. The aim of this research is therefore, to gain a deeper understanding of the psychology underpinning significance judgements. This is achieved by applying 10 concepts from psychology to the four steps in the ‘significance spectrum model’, namely: decide thresholds, make predictions, judge acceptability and consider mitigation. The results suggest that significance judgements should (with underpinning concepts from psychology provided in parentheses) aim for a limited number of key thresholds (paradox of choice); design thresholds with future gains in mind (loss aversion), reconsider probability scoring (possibility and certainty effect); avoid judgements based on limited information (What You See Is All There Is, WHYSIATI); utilise statistical prediction over expert opinion (expert fallacy); communicate carefully (priming, framing and cognitive ease); and consider personal attitudes and biases (affect heuristic).

摘要

重要性判断是EIA的核心，为整体决策提供基础和理由。尽管重要性判断的主观性质已被广泛认可，但旨在更深入理解其含义的研究却很有限。本文建立在探索心理学学习以应对 EIA 实践中的挑战（在本例中为重要性判断）的不断发展的传统的基础上。因此，这项研究的目的是更深入地了解支撑重要性判断的心理学。这是通过将心理学的 10 个概念应用到“显着性谱模型”的四个步骤中来实现的，即：决定阈值、做出预测、判断可接受性和考虑缓解措施。结果表明，重要性判断（括号内提供了心理学的基础概念）应针对有限数量的关键阈值（选择悖论）；考虑未来收益（损失厌恶）设计阈值，重新考虑概率评分（可能性和确定性效应）；避免根据有限的信息做出判断（所见即所得，WHYSIATI）；利用统计预测而非专家意见（专家谬误）；仔细沟通（启动、框架和认知放松）；并考虑个人态度和偏见（影响启发式）。重新考虑概率评分（可能性和确定性效应）；避免根据有限的信息做出判断（所见即所得，WHYSIATI）；利用统计预测而非专家意见（专家谬误）；仔细沟通（启动、框架和认知放松）；并考虑个人态度和偏见（影响启发式）。重新考虑概率评分（可能性和确定性效应）；避免根据有限的信息做出判断（所见即所得，WHYSIATI）；利用统计预测而非专家意见（专家谬误）；仔细沟通（启动、框架和认知放松）；并考虑个人态度和偏见（影响启发式）。