We develop a schedule delay model using advanced econometrics techniques, while computing the social cost of passenger delays, in order to propose an alternative to the method of defining such cost that is actually found in the literature. This study has been made possible by obtaining private revenue management and operational data directly from a main European legacy airline. Thanks to MNL models, we compute the arrival time preferences, for all groups of passengers, namely arriving or departing, and short or long stay passengers, and for every day of departure that we have collected in our dataset. Then, we compute the effect of the ex-post modification of the arrival time, created by a delay, on the passenger’s utility. We finally compute two effects on the social welfare cost of delays regarding ex-post schedule displacement: the price effect, which is the sensitivity of passengers regarding schedule displacement, and the volume effect measured by the level of airline delays in terms of time. Then, we compare those two effects across the day, in order to consider the social cost of airline delays as a two-effect phenomenon, instead of being only defined by the aggregated airline delay, in terms of time. Our results show that delays are costlier for passengers making the departing portion of their journey, with a short stay upon arrival, and during certain periods of the day. The originality of our paper principally lies in two aspects: first, studies about the precise computation of the social cost of airline delays regarding ex-post schedule displacement do not exist in the literature. Our paper fills this gap by providing an original method aiming at defining this cost. Second, our study is, to the best of our knowledge, the first to consider the effect of airline delays on the passenger’s utility, at the time of day level, by jointly analyzing revenue management and operational data.

我们使用先进的计量经济学技术开发了一个时间表延误模型，同时计算乘客延误的社会成本，以提出一种替代文献中实际发现的定义此类成本的方法。通过直接从一家主要的欧洲传统航空公司获取私人收入管理和运营数据，使这项研究成为可能。多亏了 MNL 模型，我们计算了到达时间偏好，适用于所有乘客组，即到达或离开，以及短期或长期停留的乘客，以及我们在数据集中收集的每一天的出发时间。然后，我们计算由延迟造成的到达时间事后修改对乘客效用的影响。我们最终计算了关于事后计划位移的延迟对社会福利成本的两种影响：价格效应，这是乘客对航班时刻表位移的敏感度，以及按时间衡量的航空公司延误水平衡量的容量效应。然后，我们比较了一天中的这两种影响，以便将航空公司延误的社会成本视为一种双重效应现象，而不是仅由时间方面的总航空公司延误来定义。我们的结果表明，对于在旅程的出发部分、抵达后短暂停留以及一天中的某些时段的乘客来说，延误的代价更高。我们论文的原创性主要在于两个方面：首先，文献中没有关于精确计算航空公司延误社会成本的事后班次位移的研究。我们的论文通过提供一种旨在定义此成本的原始方法来填补这一空白。第二，