High ambient temperatures are associated with many health effects, including premature mortality. The combination of global warming due to climate change and the expansion of the global built environment mean that the intensification of urban heat islands (UHIs) is expected, accompanied by adverse effects on population health. Urban green infrastructure can reduce local temperatures. We aimed to estimate the mortality burden that could be attributed to UHIs and the mortality burden that would be prevented by increasing urban tree coverage in 93 European cities. We did a quantitative health impact assessment for summer (June 1–Aug 31), 2015, of the effect of UHIs on all-cause mortality for adults aged 20 years or older in 93 European cities. We also estimated the temperature reductions that would result from increasing tree coverage to 30% for each city and estimated the number of deaths that could be potentially prevented as a result. We did all analyses at a high-resolution grid-cell level (250 × 250 m). We propagated uncertainties in input analyses by using Monte Carlo simulations to obtain point estimates and 95% CIs. We also did sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of our estimates. The population-weighted mean city temperature increase due to UHI effects was 1·5°C (SD 0·5; range 0·5–3·0). Overall, 6700 (95% CI 5254–8162) premature deaths could be attributable to the effects of UHIs (corresponding to around 4·33% [95% CI 3·37–5·28] of all summer deaths). We estimated that increasing tree coverage to 30% would cool cities by a mean of 0·4°C (SD 0·2; range 0·0–1·3). We also estimated that 2644 (95% CI 2444–2824) premature deaths could be prevented by increasing city tree coverage to 30%, corresponding to 1·84% (1·69–1·97) of all summer deaths. Our results showed the deleterious effects of UHIs on mortality and highlighted the health benefits of increasing tree coverage to cool urban environments, which would also result in more sustainable and climate-resilient cities. GoGreenRoutes, Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Institute for Global Health, UK Medical Research Council, European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

中文翻译：

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通过城市绿色基础设施为城市降温：欧洲城市的健康影响评估

高环境温度与许多健康影响有关，包括过早死亡。气候变化导致的全球变暖和全球建筑环境的扩张意味着城市热岛效应预计将加剧，并对人口健康产生不利影响。城市绿色基础设施可以降低局部气温。我们的目的是估算 93 个欧洲城市的城市健康保险可能造成的死亡负担，以及通过增加城市树木覆盖率可以避免的死亡负担。我们对 2015 年夏季（6 月 1 日至 8 月 31 日）进行了定量健康影响评估，评估城市热岛对 93 个欧洲城市 20 岁或以上成年人全因死亡率的影响。我们还估算了每个城市将树木覆盖率增加到 30% 所带来的气温下降，并估算了由此可能避免的死亡人数。我们在高分辨率网格单元级别（250 × 250 m）进行了所有分析。我们通过使用蒙特卡洛模拟来传播输入分析中的不确定性，以获得点估计和 95% CI。我们还进行了敏感性分析来测试我们估计的稳健性。由于 UHI 影响，人口加权平均城市气温升高为 1·5°C（SD 0·5；范围 0·5–3·0）。总体而言，6700 例 (95% CI 5254–8162) 过早死亡可归因于城市热岛效应的影响（相当于所有夏季死亡人数的约 4·33% [95% CI 3·37–5·28]）。我们估计，将树木覆盖率增加到 30% 将使城市平均降温 0·4°C（SD 0·2；范围 0·0–1·3）。我们还估计，通过将城市树木覆盖率提高到 30%，可以防止 2644 人 (95% CI 2444–2824) 过早死亡，相当于所有夏季死亡人数的 1·84% (1·69–1·97)。我们的研究结果显示了城市热岛对死亡率的有害影响，并强调了增加树木覆盖率以冷却城市环境对健康的益处，这也将导致城市更加可持续和气候适应能力更强。GoGreenRoutes、西班牙科学与创新部、全球健康研究所、英国医学研究理事会、欧盟 Horizo​​n 2020 项目耗尽。