Crowdshipping (CS) is an emerging form of freight transport that is expected to reduce the externalities of urban freight transport. The supply of CS services originates from people with an intention to travel, who can choose to engage in a parcel delivery service as incidental carrier. The popular expectation is that this consolidation of freight and passenger trips could save freight trips and thus alleviate urban transport congestion and environmental pollution. A key challenge in the prediction of CS service volumes and impacts, however, is to match existing service demand and supply. This has not yet been addressed in the literature with models that give an empirically realistic representation of individual decision-making. We approach this problem using a disaggregate activity-based models for urban passenger transport and freight transport. Allocation of parcels to travellers is done based on a simulated random utility discrete choice model. We present a first case study for the city of The Hague, The Netherlands, to illustrate empirically the model. Our findings suggest that CS could result in increased CO₂ emissions and total vehicle distances travelled.

众包运输 (CS) 是一种新兴的货运形式，有望减少城市货运的外部性。CS服务的供给来源于有出行意向的人群，他们可以选择作为附带承运人从事包裹递送服务。普遍的期望是，这种货运和客运行程的合并可以节省货运行程，从而缓解城市交通拥堵和环境污染。然而，预测 CS 服务量和影响的一个关键挑战是匹配现有的服务需求和供应。这在文献中还没有用模型来解决，这些模型给出了个人决策的经验现实表示。我们使用基于活动的分类城市客运和货运模型来解决这个问题。将包裹分配给旅行者是根据模拟的随机效用离散选择模型完成的。我们提出了荷兰海牙市的第一个案例研究，以从经验上说明该模型。我们的研究结果表明 CS 可能导致 CO 增加₂排放量和车辆总行驶距离。