CONTEXT

Rapid economic development in East Africa is matched by extremely dynamic smallholder livelihoods.

Objective

To quantify the changes in poverty of smallholder farmers, to evaluate the potential of farm and off-farm activities to alleviate poverty, and to evaluate the potential barriers to poverty alleviation.

METHODS

The analyses were based on a panel survey of 600 households undertaken in 2012 and re-visited approximately four years later in four sites in East Africa. The sites represented contrasting smallholder farming systems, linked to urban centres undergoing rapid economic and social change (Nairobi, Kampala, Kisumu, and Dar-es-Salaam). The surveys assessed farm management, farm productivity, livelihoods, and various measures of household welfare.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

Almost two thirds of households rose above or fell below meaningful poverty thresholds – more than previously measured in this context – but overall poverty rates remained constant. Enhanced farm value production and off-farm income proved to be important mechanisms to rise out of poverty for households that were already resource-endowed. However, households in the poorest stratum in both panels appeared to be stuck in a poverty trap. They owned significantly fewer productive assets in the first panel compared to other groups (land and livestock), and these baseline assets were found to be positively correlated with farm income in the second panel survey. Equally these households were also found to be among the least educated, while education was found to be an important enabling factor for the generation of high value off-farm income.

SIGNIFICANCE

Rural development that aims to stimulate increases in farm produce value as a means to alleviate poverty are only viable for already resource-endowed households, as they have the capacity to enhance farm value production. Conversely, the alleviation of extreme poverty should focus on different means, perhaps cash transfers, or the development of more sophisticated social safety nets. Furthermore, while off-farm income presents another important mechanism for poverty alleviation in rural areas, these opportunities are restricted to those households that have had access to education. As more households turn to off-farm activities to supplement or replace their livelihoods, farming approaches will also change affecting the management of natural resources. These dynamics ought to be better understood to better manage land-use transitions.

中文翻译：

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东非小农的贫困动态和决定因素

语境

东非经济的快速发展伴随着极其活跃的小农生计。

客观的

量化小农贫困的变化，评估农业和非农业活动的减贫潜力，评估潜在的减贫障碍。

方法

这些分析基于 2012 年对 600 户家庭进行的面板调查，大约四年后在东非的四个地点重新访问。这些地点代表了对比鲜明的小农耕作系统，与经历快速经济和社会变革的城市中心（内罗毕、坎帕拉、基苏木和达累斯萨拉姆）相连。调查评估了农场管理、农场生产力、生计和各种家庭福利措施。

结果和结论

近三分之二的家庭高于或低于有意义的贫困线——比以前在此背景下衡量的要多——但总体贫困率保持不变。事实证明，提高农业价值生产和非农收入是已经拥有资源的家庭摆脱贫困的重要机制。然而，两个面板中最贫困阶层的家庭似乎都陷入了贫困陷阱。与其他群体（土地和牲畜）相比，他们在第一个面板中拥有的生产性资产要少得多，并且在第二个面板调查中发现这些基线资产与农场收入呈正相关。同样，这些家庭也被发现属于受教育程度最低的家庭，而教育被发现是产生高价值非农收入的重要促成因素。

意义

旨在刺激农产品价值增加以作为减轻贫困手段的农村发展只对已经拥有资源的家庭可行，因为他们有能力提高农业价值的生产。相反，缓解极端贫困应该侧重于不同的手段，也许是现金转移支付，或者是发展更完善的社会安全网。此外，虽然非农收入是农村地区扶贫的另一个重要机制，但这些机会仅限于那些接受过教育的家庭。随着越来越多的家庭转向非农活动来补充或替代他们的生计，耕作方式也将发生变化，影响自然资源的管理。应该更好地理解这些动态，以更好地管理土地利用转变。