Extant tourism research has used various portfolio model types to determine optimal tourist market mixes which simultaneously maximize total tourist expenditure and minimise the instability of international inbound tourism demand. We analyse the three portfolio models that have been applied in the tourism literature: two varieties of a levels model (that use the level of tourist arrivals, or bed nights to quantify tourist activity) and a growth rates model (that deploys the growth in the level of tourist activity). Applying these models using per capita expenditure in four distinctively different destination countries (Australia, Greece, Japan, and USA), we demonstrate that the Levels Model 1 is superior to the Levels Model 2 and the Growth Rates Model. It produces solutions that provide noticeably higher tourist expenditure with less instability of international tourism demand than the status quo. Theoretical contributions and practical implications for tourism policy makers and destination marketers are discussed.

现有的旅游研究使用各种投资组合模型类型来确定最佳旅游市场组合，同时最大化旅游总支出并最小化国际入境旅游需求的不稳定性。我们分析了旅游文献中应用的三种投资组合模型：两种水平模型（使用游客到达水平或床晚数来量化旅游活动）和增长率模型（部署增长旅游活动水平）。我们使用四个截然不同的目的地国家（澳大利亚、希腊、日本和美国）的人均支出应用这些模型，证明水平模型 1 优于水平模型 2 和增长率模型。它产生的解决方案可提供明显更高的旅游支出，同时国际旅游需求的不稳定程度低于现状。讨论了对旅游政策制定者和目的地营销人员的理论贡献和实际意义。