The economic consequences of large-scale government investments in education depend on general equilibrium effects in both the labor market and the education sector. I develop a general equilibrium model capturing the consequences of massive countrywide schooling initiatives. I provide unbiased estimates of the model’s elasticities, using a regression discontinuity derived from Indian government policy. The earnings returns to a year of education are 13.4%, and the general equilibrium labor market effects substantially depress returns, by 6.6 percentage points. These general equilibrium effects have distributional consequences across cohorts and skill groups, whereby unskilled workers are better off and skilled workers worse off.

中文翻译：

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一般均衡下的大规模教育改革：来自印度的回归不连续性证据

大规模政府教育投资的经济后果取决于劳动力市场和教育部门的一般均衡效应。我开发了一个一般均衡模型来捕捉大规模全国性学校教育计划的后果。我使用源自印度政府政策的回归不连续性提供模型弹性的无偏估计。一年教育的收入回报率为 13.4%，一般均衡劳动力市场效应大幅压低回报率 6.6 个百分点。这些一般均衡效应会在群组和技能组之间产生分配影响，从而使非熟练工人的境况更好，而熟练工人的境况更差。