We investigate the effects of financial risk cycles on business cycles, using a panel spanning 73 countries since 1900. Agents use a Bayesian learning model to form their beliefs about risk. We construct a proxy of these beliefs and show that perceived low risk encourages risk-taking, augmenting growth at the cost of accumulating financial vulnerabilities, and, therefore, a reversal in growth follows. The reversal is particularly pronounced when the low-risk environment persists and credit growth is excessive. Global risk cycles have a stronger effect on growth than local risk cycles via their impact on capital flows, investment, and debt-issuer quality.

中文翻译：

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风险周期对商业周期的影响：历史观点

我们使用自 1900 年以来跨越 73 个国家/地区的面板调查金融风险周期对商业周期的影响。代理人使用贝叶斯学习模型来形成他们对风险的信念。我们构建了这些信念的代理，并表明感知到的低风险会鼓励冒险，以积累金融脆弱性为代价来促进增长，因此，增长会出现逆转。当低风险环境持续存在且信贷增长过快时，这种逆转尤为明显。通过对资本流动、投资和债务发行人质量的影响，全球风险周期对增长的影响大于本地风险周期。