The compaction of subsurface chalk during hydrocarbon production leads to technical and societal issues related to well trajectory design, wellbore collapse, seafloor subsidence, and seismic events. Predicting reservoir deformation over time requires well-calibrated constitutive equations to capture the viscoplastic response of chalk according to several parameters including porosity, age, water saturation, and rate of applied stress or strain. The experimental data used to extrapolate trends between e.g., porosity and yield stress, show a non-negligible data scattering, thereby raising questions about the reliability of the predicted compaction. The present study aims at assessing how the uncertainty associated with the determination of the yield stress manifests itself at the field scale. To this purpose, one-dimensional simulations are performed on four producing hydrocarbon reservoirs from the Danish North Sea and quality-checked against seafloor subsidence measurements. Two simulations are run per case study by considering in the constitutive equations the initial (conservative approach) and final (optimistic approach) yield stress values, which delimit the transition between the elastic and plastic regime of chalk. The results indicate that the accumulated strain and the seafloor subsidence vary by a factor of up to 73% and 50%, respectively between the conservative and optimistic approaches. These differences in the compaction behaviour are influenced by three parameters, the initial porosity, the virgin stress condition, and the stress history of the reservoir. This study demonstrates that the uncertainty analysis of compaction simulation studies is essential for estimation of compaction drive of hydrocarbon fields and to identify the locations potentially subject to failure in the context of hydrocarbon production and field abandonment as well as CO₂ and thermal storage projects.

油气生产过程中地下白垩的压实会导致与井轨迹设计、井眼坍塌、海底沉降和地震事件相关的技术和社会问题。预测储层随时间的变形需要经过良好校准的本构方程，以根据多个参数（包括孔隙率、年龄、含水饱和度和施加应力或应变率）捕获白垩的粘塑性响应。用于推断趋势的实验数据，例如，孔隙率和屈服应力，显示出不可忽略的数据散射，从而引发了对预测压实可靠性的质疑。本研究旨在评估与确定屈服应力相关的不确定性如何在现场规模上表现出来。为此，对丹麦北海的四个在产油气藏进行了一维模拟，并根据海底沉降测量值进行了质量检查。通过在本构方程中考虑初始（保守方法）和最终（乐观方法）屈服应力值，每个案例研究运行两个模拟，这些值界定了粉笔的弹性和塑性状态之间的过渡。结果表明，累积应变和海底沉降的变化系数高达 73% 和 50%，分别在保守和乐观的方法之间。压实行为的这些差异受三个参数的影响，即初始孔隙度、原始应力条件和储层的应力历史。这项研究表明，压实模拟研究的不确定性分析对于估算油气田的压实驱动以及确定在油气生产和油田废弃以及 CO2 背景下可能发生故障的位置至关重要₂、蓄热工程。