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Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects
Explorations in Economic History ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2022-11-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2022.101480
Jacopo Timini

This study revisits the trade and welfare effects of 19th century bilateralism exploiting the latest developments in structural gravity models, including the consideration of domestic trade. Using bilateral trade data between 1855 and 1875, I show that the Cobden-Chevalier network, i.e. a system of bilateral trade agreements including the Most Favored Nation clause, has large, positive and significant effects on members’ trade. These, however, are heterogeneous at the treaty-level. I then calculate its general equilibrium effects on total trade and welfare. They are considerable, while trade diversion effects are negligible. These results reshape the understanding of the Cobden-Chevalier network, helping in further rationalizing the “free trade epidemic” of the 1860s and 1870s.



中文翻译:

重温“Cobden-Chevalier 网络”贸易和福利效应

本研究利用结构引力模型的最新发展,包括对国内贸易的考虑,重新审视了 19 世纪双边主义的贸易和福利影响使用 1855 年至 1875 年的双边贸易数据,我表明 Cobden-Chevalier 网络,即包括最惠国条款的双边贸易协定体系,对成员贸易具有巨大、积极和显着的影响。然而,这些在条约层面是不同的。然后我计算它对总贸易和福利的一般均衡效应。它们相当可观,而贸易转移的影响可以忽略不计。这些结果重塑了对 Cobden-Chevalier 网络的理解,有助于进一步合理化 1860 年代和 1870 年代的“自由贸易流行病”。

更新日期:2022-11-19
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