This study revisits the trade and welfare effects of 19^th century bilateralism exploiting the latest developments in structural gravity models, including the consideration of domestic trade. Using bilateral trade data between 1855 and 1875, I show that the Cobden-Chevalier network, i.e. a system of bilateral trade agreements including the Most Favored Nation clause, has large, positive and significant effects on members’ trade. These, however, are heterogeneous at the treaty-level. I then calculate its general equilibrium effects on total trade and welfare. They are considerable, while trade diversion effects are negligible. These results reshape the understanding of the Cobden-Chevalier network, helping in further rationalizing the “free trade epidemic” of the 1860s and 1870s.

本研究利用结构引力模型的最新发展，包括对国内贸易的考虑，重新审视了 19 世纪双边主义的贸易和福利影响^。使用 1855 年至 1875 年的双边贸易数据，我表明 Cobden-Chevalier 网络，即包括最惠国条款的双边贸易协定体系，对成员贸易具有巨大、积极和显着的影响。然而，这些在条约层面是不同的。然后我计算它对总贸易和福利的一般均衡效应。它们相当可观，而贸易转移的影响可以忽略不计。这些结果重塑了对 Cobden-Chevalier 网络的理解，有助于进一步合理化 1860 年代和 1870 年代的“自由贸易流行病”。