Tanzania’s dairy sector is poorly developed, creating reliance on imports for processed, value-added dairy products and threatening food security, particularly when supply chains are disrupted due to market volatility or armed conflicts. The Tanzanian Dairy Development Roadmap is a domestic development initiative that aims to achieve dairy self-sufficiency by 2030. Here, we model different outcomes of the roadmap, finding that adoption of high-yield cattle breeds is essential for reducing dairy import dependency. Avoided land use change resulting from fewer, higher yielding dairy cattle would lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Dairy producers’ average incomes could increase despite capital expenditure and land allocation required for the adoption of high-yield breeds. Our findings demonstrate the importance of bottom-up development policies for sustainable food system transformations, which also support food sovereignty, increase incomes for smallholder farmers and contribute towards Tanzania’s commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

坦桑尼亚的乳制品行业不发达，导致加工增值乳制品依赖进口，并威胁到粮食安全，尤其是当供应链因市场波动或武装冲突而中断时。坦桑尼亚乳业发展路线图是一项旨在到 2030 年实现乳制品自给自足的国内发展计划。在这里，我们模拟了路线图的不同结果，发现采用高产牛品种对于减少乳制品进口依赖至关重要。避免因更少、更高产的奶牛而导致的土地利用变化将导致更低的温室气体排放。尽管采用高产品种需要资本支出和土地分配，但乳制品生产者的平均收入可能会增加。