Despite anecdotal evidence of a COVID-19 induced decline in the intensity of interstate migration in Australia, population-level evidence is limited. The recent release of the 2020 wave of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey provides a unique opportunity to robustly assess the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the level, direction, determinants, and reasons for migration in Australia. By applying a series of regression models to individual-level longitudinal microdata, and measuring migration at a range of spatial scales, this paper shows that COVID-19 has somewhat accelerated the long-term decline in the intensity of internal migration—particularly for residential mobility, short-distance migration, and migration due to employment and involuntary reasons. The socio-demographic determinants of migration have remained broadly stable, despite a slight increase in the deterring effect of duration of residence and a reduction in the impact of education. Finally, we show that the increase in net migration gains in regional areas is underpinned by a decrease in outflows. Juxtaposing these results with aggregate-level migration statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 2021, we conclude that the effect of COVID-19 on internal migration to date has been minimal and is likely to be short-lived. However, it may still be too soon to make a definitive judgement, as shifts in work patterns stemming from the pandemic may further transform the level, direction, and composition of internal migration.

中文翻译：

---

延续还是变化？ COVID-19 的爆发如何影响澳大利亚的内部移民


尽管有传闻证据表明，COVID-19 导致澳大利亚州际移民强度下降，但人口层面的证据有限。最近发布的 2020 年澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态 (HILDA) 调查提供了一个独特的机会，可以有力地评估 COVID-19 大流行对澳大利亚移民水平、方向、决定因素和原因的影响。通过对个人层面的纵向微观数据应用一系列回归模型，并在一系列空间尺度上测量迁移，本文表明，COVID-19 在一定程度上加速了内部迁移强度的长期下降，尤其是居住流动性、短途迁移、因就业和非自愿原因而发生的迁移。尽管居住时间的威慑作用略有增加，教育的影响有所减弱，但移民的社会人口决定因素仍大体保持稳定。最后，我们表明，偏远地区净移民收益的增加是由流出量减少所支撑的。将这些结果与澳大利亚统计局 2021 年以来的总体移民统计数据进行比较，我们得出的结论是，迄今为止，COVID-19 对国内移民的影响很小，而且可能是短暂的。然而，现在做出明确的判断可能还为时过早，因为大流行引发的工作模式的转变可能会进一步改变国内移民的水平、方向和构成。