The COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent travel restrictions have had an unprecedented impact on the air travel market. However, a rigorous analysis of the potential role of safety perceptions and attitudes towards COVID-19 interventions on future air passenger choices has been lacking to date. To investigate this matter, 1469 individuals were interviewed between April and September 2020 in four multi-airport cities (London, New York City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai). The core analysis draws upon data from a set of stated preference (SP) experiments in which respondents were asked to reflect on a hypothetical air travel journey taking place when travel restrictions are lifted but there is still a risk of infection. The hybrid choice model results show that alongside traditional attributes, such as fare, duration and transfer, attitudinal and safety perception factors matter to air passengers when making future air travel choices. The cross-national analysis points towards differences in responses across the cities to stem from culturally-driven attitudes towards interpersonal distance and personal space. We also report the willingness to pay for travel attributes under the expected future conditions and discuss post-pandemic implications for the air travel sector, including video-conferencing as a substitute for air travel.

COVID-19 大流行以及随之而来的旅行限制对航空旅行市场产生了前所未有的影响。然而，迄今为止，尚未对安全认知和对 COVID-19 干预措施的态度对未来航空乘客选择的潜在作用进行严格分析。为了调查此事，2020 年 4 月至 9 月期间，我们在四个多机场城市（伦敦、纽约、圣保罗、上海）采访了 1469 名个人。核心分析借鉴了一组规定偏好（SP）实验的数据，在这些实验中，受访者被要求反思旅行限制解除但仍然存在感染风险时发生的假设航空旅行旅程。混合选择模型的结果表明，除了票价、持续时间和转乘等传统属性外，态度和安全感知因素对航空乘客在做出未来航空旅行选择时也很重要。跨国分析指出，不同城市的反应差异源于文化驱动的对人际距离和个人空间的态度。我们还报告了在预期的未来条件下为旅行属性付费的意愿，并讨论了大流行后对航空旅行行业的影响，包括视频会议作为航空旅行的替代品。