Pelagic fauna is expected to be impacted under climate change according to ecosystem simulations. However, the direction and magnitude of the impact is still uncertain and still not corroborated by observation-based statistical studies. Here we compile a global underwater sonar database and 20 ocean climate projections to predict the future distribution of sound-scattering fauna around the world’s oceans. We show that global pelagic fauna will be seriously compromised by the end of the twenty-first century if we continue under the current greenhouse emission scenario. Low and mid latitudes are expected to lose from 3% to 22% of animal biomass due to the expansion of low-productive systems, while higher latitudes would be populated by present-day temperate fauna, supporting results from ecosystem simulations. We further show that strong mitigation measures to contain global warming below 2 °C would reduce these impacts to less than half.

根据生态系统模拟，预计远洋动物群将受到气候变化的影响。然而，影响的方向和幅度仍然不确定，并且仍未得到基于观察的统计研究的证实。在这里，我们编译了一个全球水下声纳数据库和 20 个海洋气候预测，以预测世界海洋周围声音散射动物群的未来分布。我们表明，如果我们继续在当前的温室气体排放情景下，到 21 世纪末，全球中上层动物群将受到严重损害。由于低产系统的扩张，预计中低纬度地区的动物生物量将减少 3% 至 22%，而高纬度地区将由现今的温带动物群聚居，这支持了生态系统模拟的结果。