How much control do people have over their career? We explore this question in the context of professional service firms, long thought of as providing predictable, agentic careers in the up-or-out model. Specifically, we seek to understand how chance events in immediate work circumstances are experienced in this context, and the responses they elicit in terms of career construction. Drawing on in-depth interviews with 68 pre-partnership professionals from three large professional firms using the up-or-out promotion system, we find that chance developments in proximate work conditions, especially with respect to key relationships and project allocation, shape the possibilities that professionals see for their careers going forward and the actions they take in response. Even in this seemingly predictable career, being continuously attuned to fortuitous turns of events informs how people enact career agency. It also prompts a heightened awareness of the fragile nature of the up-or-out career path, triggering a gradual reconsideration of career possibilities that includes career confirmation, ambivalence, pivot, and fading. Our study contributes to better understanding the interdependence between context and agency in contemporary careers, highlighting the widespread and consequential role of proximate chance events in people's career construction process.

人们对自己的职业生涯有多少控制权？我们在专业服务公司的背景下探讨了这个问题，长期以来，这些公司一直被认为是在向上或向外模型中提供可预测的代理职业。具体来说，我们试图了解在这种背景下如何体验直接工作环境中的偶然事件，以及它们在职业建设方面引起的反应。通过对来自 3 家大型专业公司的 68 位合伙人前专业人士使用 up-or-out 晋升系统进行的深入访谈，我们发现在邻近工作条件下的机会发展，特别是在关键关系和项目分配方面，塑造了可能性专业人士看到他们未来的职业生涯以及他们采取的应对行动。即使在这个看似可以预见的职业生涯中，不断地适应偶然的事件转变可以告知人们如何制定职业代理。它还促使人们更加意识到上升或退出职业道路的脆弱性，引发对职业可能性的逐步重新考虑，包括职业确认、矛盾心理、支点和衰落。我们的研究有助于更好地理解当代职业中背景和代理之间的相互依赖关系，突出了近端机会事件在人们的职业建设过程中的广泛而重要的作用。