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Improvements in the relationship between tropical precipitation and sea surface temperature from CMIP5 to CMIP6
Climate Dynamics ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-27 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06519-3
Xianke Yang , Ping Huang

Precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) are important variables, the coupling of which is crucial in understanding the variation in the Earth’s climate under the effects of global warming. We evaluated the precipitation–SST (P–SST) and precipitation–SST tendency (P–SST′) correlation by comparing the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) results with observational datasets and results from the CMIP5 models. In general, the multimodel ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models greatly improved the simulation of the annual P–SST′ correlation, with the spatial correlation coefficient increasing by 9.73% and the root-mean-square error decreasing by 7.00% compared with the CMIP5 models. The improvement ratio was greater than the simulation of the P–SST correlation. Air–sea interactions in the tropics vary with both season and location. We found a great improvement for the P–SST correlations in spring and summer, but only a slight improvement in autumn and winter, in contrast with the simulation of the P–SST′ correlations. Specifically, the spread among the CMIP6 models was reduced for the P–SST correlation over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific and for the P–SST′ correlation over the western North Pacific. By contrast, the CMIP6 models displayed poorer results, with a deviated bias over the maritime continent and the western Indian Ocean. We used intermodel empirical orthogonal function analysis to show that the model spread of the P–SST and P–SST′ correlations was mainly determined by the climatological precipitation. These results provide a deeper understanding of the co-variability between tropical precipitation and SST and will improve predictions of the future regional climate.



中文翻译:

从 CMIP5 到 CMIP6 热带降水与海面温度关系的改进

降水和海表温度(SST)是重要的变量,它们的耦合对于理解全球变暖影响下地球气候的变化至关重要。我们通过将更新的耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 结果与观测数据集和 CMIP5 模型的结果进行比较,评估了降水-SST (P-SST) 和降水-SST 趋势 (P-SST') 的相关性。总体而言,CMIP6模型的多模型集合平均值大大提高了对年P-SST'相关性的模拟,与CMIP5模型相比,空间相关系数提高了9.73%,均方根误差降低了7.00% . 改善率大于 P-SST 相关性的模拟。热带地区的海气相互作用因季节和地点而异。与 P-SST' 相关性的模拟相比,我们发现 P-SST 相关性在春季和夏季有很大改善,但在秋季和冬季仅略有改善。具体而言,赤道中东部太平洋的 P-SST 相关性和北太平洋西部的 P-SST' 相关性降低了 CMIP6 模型之间的分布。相比之下,CMIP6 模型的结果较差,对海洋大陆和西印度洋有偏差。我们使用模型间经验正交函数分析表明P-SST和P-SST'相关性的模型扩展主要由气候降水决定。

更新日期:2022-09-27
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