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A method based on the theories of game and extension cloud for risk assessment of construction safety: A case study considering disaster-inducing factors in the construction process
Journal of Building Engineering ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jobe.2022.105317
Weiyi Ju , Jie Wu , Qingchun Kang , Juncheng Jiang , Zhixiang Xing

With the rapid development of the global economy, construction safety has increasingly become a concern for sustainable social development. This study focuses on the risk levels of construction safety considering disaster-inducing factors and proposes countermeasures to address them. There are numerous casualties in the construction industry, which causes tremendous grief to the families of construction workers. Therefore, it is crucial to study this research problem to reduce casualties. The aim of this study was to monitor and provide warnings about risks in advance using scientific assessment models to reduce the possibility and severity of disasters. A risk assessment model based on game theory and extension cloud theory was developed to analyse the safety resilience between various indicators and determine the risk levels. The best worst method was used to replace the traditional subjective method in the model. The results showed that the expected and entropy values of the construction risk were 3.2107 and 0.0260, respectively. Moreover, the confidence factor was 0.0081, which was within the confidence interval. Hence, the result was considered credible. In addition, the maximum value of the comprehensive evaluation vector J was 0.1177, corresponding to a high comprehensive risk-resilience level for the project. Indicators with higher levels of safety resilience were revealed from the results of this study, which should be fully considered. Moreover, these results provide novel stochastic and objective methods for safety managers. This study considered the disaster-inducing factors when assessing construction safety risks, which is a pioneering attempt in this field.



中文翻译:

基于博弈和可拓云理论的施工安全风险评估方法——以施工过程中的致灾因素为例

随着全球经济的快速发展,施工安全日益成为社会可持续发展的关注点。本研究重点关注考虑灾害诱发因素的施工安全风险水平,并提出应对措施。建筑业人员伤亡众多,给建筑工人家属带来巨大悲痛。因此,研究这一研究问题以减少人员伤亡至关重要。本研究的目的是利用科学的评估模型,提前监测并提供风险预警,以减少灾害发生的可能性和严重程度。建立基于博弈论和可拓云理论的风险评估模型,分析各指标之间的安全弹性,确定风险等级。模型中采用最佳最差方法代替传统的主观方法。结果表明,施工风险的期望值和熵值分别为3.2107和0.0260。此外,置信因子为0.0081,在置信区间内。因此,该结果被认为是可信的。此外,综合评价向量J的最大值为0.1177,对应项目的综合风险抵御能力水平较高。本研究结果揭示了安全弹性水平较高的指标,应予以充分考虑。此外,这些结果为安全管理人员提供了新颖的随机和客观方法。本研究在评估施工安全风险时考虑了灾害诱发因素,

更新日期:2022-09-24
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