Water options trading (WOT) is an effective way to promote efficient allocation of water resources and to manage risks of water scarcity. Scientific prediction information can help hedge the risks brought by uncertain hydrological and market environment to WOT. However, confronting with the prediction information, irrigation areas characterizing with heterogeneous resource endowments often exhibit different willingness in WOT. Therefore, through using prediction information, this study provides a novel perspective to assess the water option trading willingness (WOTW) in irrigation areas with heterogeneous resource endowments. Firstly, according to multi-objective optimization and expected utility theory, a three-phase dynamic adjustment model involving tradable water prediction, expected return analysis of WOT, and WOTW calculation is constructed and integrated. Then, based on three sets of comparative analysis data from 2014 to 2020 in five irrigated areas, the influence mechanism of heterogeneous resource endowments on the evolution, intensity and improvement potential of the WOTW is analyzed and the option contract with optimal water demand to motivate the WOTW in heterogeneous irrigation areas is proposed. The results of the case study suggest that the WOTW is largely affected by the matching equilibrium of water and arable land resources in irrigation areas. Larger water resource endowment per unit of arable land indicates smaller fluctuation of the WOTW evolution and greater intensity and improvement potential of the WOTW. Conversely, larger inter-annual variation of the water resource endowment per unit of arable land implies more inclination of the WOTW intensity in irrigation areas to be weakened, in which situation the irrigation areas prefer the option contracts with less water demand. This study provides a new method and theoretical foundation for the optimal allocation and options trading of agricultural water resources.

水期权交易（WOT）是促进水资源有效配置和管理水资源短缺风险的有效途径。科学的预测信息有助于对冲不确定的水文和市场环境给WOT带来的风险。然而，面对预测信息，具有异质资源禀赋特征的灌区往往表现出不同的WOT意愿。因此，本研究通过使用预测信息，为评估水期权交易意愿（WOTW ）提供了一个新的视角。) 在资源禀赋异质的灌区。首先，根据多目标优化和期望效用理论，构建并集成了可交易水预测、WOT预期收益分析和WOTW计算三阶段动态调整模型。然后，基于5个灌区2014-2020年的三组对比分析数据，分析了异质资源禀赋对WOTW演变、强度和改善潜力的影响机制，并以最优需水量的期权合约来激励提出了异质灌溉区的WOTW。案例研究的结果表明，WOTW主要受灌区水与耕地资源匹配平衡的影响。单位耕地水资源禀赋越大，说明WOTW演化波动越小， WOTW强度和提升潜力越大。反之，单位耕地水资源禀赋的年际变化越大，说明灌区WOTW强度越有减弱趋势，灌区倾向于选择需水量较少的期权合约。本研究为农业水资源的优化配置和期权交易提供了新的方法和理论基础。