The COVID-19 outbreak has spread all around the world in less than four months. However, the pattern of the epidemic was different according to the countries. We propose this paper to describe the transmission network and to estimate the serial interval and the reproductive number of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Burkina Faso, a Sub-Saharan African country. Data from the COVID-19 response team was analyzed. Information on the 804 first detected cases were pulled together. From contact tracing information, 126 infector-infectee pairs were built. The principal infection clusters with their index cases were observed, principally the two major identified indexes in Burkina. However, the generations of infections were usually short (less than four). The serial interval was estimated to follow a gamma distribution with a shape parameter 1.04 (95% credibility interval: 0.69–1.57) and a scale parameter of 5.69 (95% credibility interval: 3.76–9.11). The basic reproductive number was estimated at 2.36 (95% confidence interval: 1.46–3.26). However, the effective reproductive number decreases very quickly, reaching a minimum value of 0.20 (95% confidence interval: 0.06–0.34). Estimated parameters are made available to monitor the outbreak in Sub-Saharan African countries. These show serial intervals like in the other continents but less infectiousness.

中文翻译：

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使用撒哈拉以南非洲国家布基纳法索的接触数据估算 COVID-19 爆发的序列间隔和有效繁殖数


新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情在不到四个月的时间里已在全球蔓延。然而，不同国家的疫情模式有所不同。我们提出这篇论文是为了描述撒哈拉以南非洲国家布基纳法索的传播网络并估计新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的序列间隔和繁殖数量。对来自 COVID-19 响应小组的数据进行了分析。首批发现的 804 例病例的信息已汇总。根据接触者追踪信息，建立了 126 个感染者-感染者对。观察了主要感染群及其指示病例，主要是布基纳法索确定的两个主要指示病例。然而，感染的世代通常很短（少于四代）。序列区间估计遵循形状参数 1.04（95% 可信区间：0.69–1.57）和尺度参数 5.69（95% 可信区间：3.76–9.11）的伽玛分布。基本再生数估计为 2.36（95% 置信区间：1.46–3.26）。然而，有效繁殖数下降得很快，达到最小值0.20（95%置信区间：0.06-0.34）。提供估计参数来监测撒哈拉以南非洲国家的疫情。这些显示出与其他大陆类似的连续间隔，但传染性较低。