This paper investigates whether the global financial cycle (GFC) contributes to the bubble-like dynamics in international house prices. Using the recursive unit-root procedure of Phillips et al. (2015a, b), we establish a timeline for the episodes of housing markets’ exuberance covering a panel of 24 countries. Next, we examine the predictive ability of the six variables characterizing the GFC as suggested by Miranda-Agrippino and Rey (2020) and find all of them robust predictors of the boom-and-bust episodes detected. These findings demand policy makers to pay close attention to the GFC indicators when monitoring explosive behaviors in house prices.

本文调查了全球金融周期 (GFC) 是否促成了国际房价的泡沫状动态。使用Phillips 等人的递归单位根程序。(2015a , b )，我们为 24 个国家/地区的房地产市场繁荣时期建立了时间表。接下来，我们按照Miranda-Agrippino 和 Rey（2020 年）的建议检查表征全球金融危机的六个变量的预测能力，并发现它们都是检测到的繁荣与萧条事件的可靠预测因子。这些发现要求政策制定者在监测房价的爆炸性行为时密切关注 GFC 指标。