A skilful seasonal prediction for wintertime rainfall in southern Thailand,International Journal of Climatology

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A skilful seasonal prediction for wintertime rainfall in southern Thailand
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-21 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7882
Zizhen Dong _{1,

2} , Lin Wang ₂ , Hainan Gong ₂ , Atsamon Limsakul ₃ , Hongdou Fan _{4,

5} , Sittichai Pimonsree ₆

Affiliation

Year-to-year variations of southern Thailand rainfall (STR) in boreal winter exert profound social and economic impacts, whereas current multimodel ensemble prediction systems have low skills to predict the STR. This study proposes a physical-based seasonal prediction model for the winter STR 1 month in advance using the outputs from the dynamic models. The prediction model is constructed using linear regression, with the tropical western Pacific (TWP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in preceding October as a predictor. Its prediction skill in the leave-five-out cross-validation is significantly higher than that of the multimodel ensemble mean. The mechanism behind this model is also discussed. In October, the warm TWP SST anomalies can trigger anomalous low-level convergence surrounding the South China Sea in terms of the Matsuno–Gill mechanism and persist into the following winter, causing above-than-normal STR. This information is essential and may provide another perspective to improve the model prediction on the winter STR.

中文翻译：

对泰国南部冬季降雨的巧妙季节性预测

北方冬季泰国南部降雨量 (STR) 的逐年变化会产生深远的社会和经济影响，而目前的多模式集合预测系统预测 STR 的技能较低。本研究使用动态模型的输出提前 1 个月提出了冬季 STR 的基于物理的季节性预测模型。该预测模型是使用线性回归构建的，以前 10 月的热带西太平洋 (TWP) 海面温度 (SST) 异常作为预测变量。它在 leave-five-out 交叉验证中的预测技巧明显高于多模型集成均值。还讨论了该模型背后的机制。在十月，TWP 海温偏暖异常会引发围绕南海的松野-吉尔机制异常低层辐合，并持续到次年冬季，导致海温异常偏高。这些信息是必不可少的，可以为改进冬季 STR 的模型预测提供另一个视角。

更新日期：2022-09-21

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