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Influence of Russia-Ukraine War on the Global Energy and Food Security
Resources, Conservation and Recycling ( IF 13.2 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106657
Xi-Yin Zhou, Gang Lu, Zhicheng Xu, Xiaoqing Yan, Soon-Thiam Khu, Junfeng Yang, Jian Zhao

The Russian- Ukraine War has and further influence the global energy and food security. However, the detailed influence degree, key weak points and influence process is still unclear in the current. Therefore, this study established a newly improved under-load cascading failure model with consideration of overload limitation, and used it to evaluate influence of Russian- Ukraine War on the global energy and food security. This study also proposed a method to assess the network structure characteristic including robustness and resilience through model simulation under different scenarios. The main results include: The upper limitation of node load has the dominant function on the global energy and food security, while the influence of lower limitation parameter of node load has limited function. All of the networks have relative consistent recover and anti-damage ability against Russian and Ukraine War and the global panic except barley network. A key phenomenon we should concern is that the largest trade flow amounts are not occurred in the failure nodes. The failure nodes are always the countries with low economic scale and political status. The results tell us that we should further strengthen the importance of enhance production ability and energy types to resist the risk of Russian and Ukraine War. The global international organizations are also required to strengthen the function of balance the global security demand of energy and food between big countries and small countries. We should pay more attention to the little countries in the Africa and Asia to handle the risk.



中文翻译:

俄乌战争对全球能源和粮食安全的影响

俄乌战争已经并进一步影响了全球能源和粮食安全。但具体影响程度、关键薄弱环节和影响过程目前尚不清楚。因此,本研究建立了一种新改进的考虑过载限制的欠载级联失效模型,并以此来评估俄乌战争对全球能源和粮食安全的影响。本研究还提出了一种通过模型模拟在不同场景下评估网络结构特征的方法,包括鲁棒性和弹性。主要结果包括:节点负荷上限对全球能源和粮食安全起主导作用,而节点负荷下限参数的影响作用有限。除大麦网络外,所有网络对俄乌战争和全球恐慌都具有相对一致的恢复和抗破坏能力。我们应该关注的一个关键现象是,最大的交易流量不会发生在故障节点中。失败节点始终是经济规模和政治地位较低的国家。研究结果告诉我们,要进一步强化提高生产能力和能源种类的重要性,以抵御俄乌战争风险。还要求全球国际组织加强平衡大国与小国之间全球能源和粮食安全需求的功能。我们应该更多地关注亚非小国来应对风险。

更新日期:2022-09-21
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