The use of scenarios in climate policy planning: an assessment of actors’ experiences and lessons learned in Finland,Climate Policy

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The use of scenarios in climate policy planning: an assessment of actors’ experiences and lessons learned in Finland
Climate Policy ( IF 6.056 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-21 , DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2022.2123773
Kalle Aro ₁ , Jyrki Aakkula ₁ , Ville Lauttamäki ₂ , Vilja Varho ₁ , Pim Martens ₃ , Pasi Rikkonen ₄

Affiliation

ABSTRACT

Scenarios are often used to depict the possible outcomes of alternative future developments as part of the evaluation of climate and energy policy measures. In Finland, scenarios have become a standard practice in climate-related policy planning. However, scenario planning often results in a single cohesive narrative, which lacks transparency in why certain developments and solutions are included and others left out. This article focuses on how scenarios created during the planning of Finland’s Medium-term Plan for Climate Change Policy (KAISU) were built, and how the actors involved assessed the characteristics and quality of these scenarios. We interviewed a total of 18 participants from research, administration, and policymaking domains involved in the creation of the plan and the scenarios it contains. Semi-structured interviews provided an insight into the creation and use of scenarios as part of policy formulation, as well as points of further improvement for the process. The KAISU plan was constructed as a cross-sectoral collaborative effort between policymakers, public officials, and researchers. Despite the variety of actors involved in the process, the resulting scenarios were perceived as well-executed by the participants. However, national scenario foresight could be improved in three dimensions: 1) the process where actors collaborate to build scenarios, 2) the scenario methodology, where solutions and developments are included or excluded, and 3) use of the scenarios after their construction.

Key policy insights

The scenario approach used in Finland corresponds with needs at the political level. However, the approach could be improved without compromising this goal.
The underlying scenario assumptions and the compatibility of the models used lack transparency. Many actors involved in the scenario process have a limited understanding of the models used and measures proposed outside their respective sector.
Construction of more than one policy scenario would allow a larger variety of possible future trajectories to be evaluated in national policymaking. In this case, the aim and role of the scenario process would have to be adjusted and clarified accordingly.
Communication regarding the role and applicability of foresight methods should be improved for citizens and politicians alike.

中文翻译：

情景在气候政策规划中的使用：对参与者在芬兰的经验和教训的评估

摘要

作为气候和能源政策措施评估的一部分，情景通常用于描述替代性未来发展的可能结果。在芬兰，情景已成为气候相关政策规划的标准做法。然而，情景规划通常会导致单一的连贯叙述，这缺乏透明度，说明为什么包含某些发展和解决方案而其他则被排除在外。本文重点介绍在规划芬兰气候变化政策中期计划 (KAISU) 期间创建的情景是如何构建的，以及参与者如何评估这些情景的特征和质量。我们共采访了来自研究、行政和决策领域的 18 名参与者，他们参与了该计划及其包含的场景的创建。半结构化访谈提供了对场景的创建和使用作为政策制定的一部分的洞察力，以及该过程的进一步改进点。KAISU 计划是决策者、公职人员和研究人员之间跨部门合作的成果。尽管该过程涉及各种参与者，但参与者认为所产生的场景执行得很好。然而，国家情景预测可以在三个方面得到改进：1）参与者合作构建情景的过程，2）情景方法，其中包括或排除解决方案和发展，以及 3）情景构建后的使用。KAISU 计划是决策者、公职人员和研究人员之间跨部门合作的成果。尽管该过程涉及各种参与者，但参与者认为所产生的场景执行得很好。然而，国家情景预测可以在三个方面得到改进：1）参与者合作构建情景的过程，2）情景方法，其中包括或排除解决方案和发展，以及 3）情景构建后的使用。KAISU 计划是决策者、公职人员和研究人员之间跨部门合作的成果。尽管该过程涉及各种参与者，但参与者认为所产生的场景执行得很好。然而，国家情景预测可以在三个方面得到改进：1）参与者合作构建情景的过程，2）情景方法，其中包括或排除解决方案和发展，以及 3）情景构建后的使用。