Abstract

The strategic warning function can be understood in two ways. One emphasizes existing and anticipated threats and threat streams, known challengers, and discrete events. This understanding of warning asks, for example, about the who, what, where, when, and how of the next attack. It is dependent on clearly defined spatial and temporal parameters. Another understanding of warning emphasizes the unknown, the more diffuse threat potential. More anticipatory in nature, this function of warning looks beyond the expected and the usual to ask about possible events not yet recognizable from available intelligence or relatable from previous experience. The first understanding of warning, as it is generally practiced, offers either predictions or forecasts of potential future developments, couched in terms of definitive statements or probabilistic assessments. The second, presented in this article, foregoes both prediction and forecasting, suggesting instead that warning can be expanded and augmented by adopting a foresight approach that emphasizes option identification. Intended to supplement existing warning activities, foresight-based warning activities would leverage unbounded scenarios and iterative probability assessments to enhance and expand warning through greater consideration and attentiveness to emergent, unique, unexpected, and diffused threats.

摘要

战略预警功能可以从两个方面来理解。一种强调现有的和预期的威胁和威胁流、已知的挑战者和离散事件。例如，这种对警告的理解会询问下一次攻击的人物、内容、地点、时间和方式。它取决于明确定义的空间和时间参数。对警告的另一种理解强调未知的、更分散的潜在威胁。从本质上讲，这种警告功能更具预见性，它超出了预期和通常的范围，询问尚未从现有情报中识别出来或与以前的经验相关的可能事件。正如通常所实践的那样，对警告的第一个理解提供了对未来潜在发展的预测或预测，以明确的陈述或概率评估的形式表达。本文提出的第二个方法放弃了预测和预测，而是建议通过采用强调选项识别的前瞻方法来扩大和增强警告。为了补充现有的预警活动，基于预见的预警活动将利用无界情景和迭代概率评估，通过更多地考虑和关注紧急、独特、意外和分散的威胁来增强和扩大预警。