Context

Climate change threatens wine growing systems in varying ways because of their high diversity, even at a local scale. This diversity needs to be considered when designing and assessing adaptation strategies to coordinate better with these diverse local conditions.

Objective

We developed a participatory modeling approach to (1) design adaptation strategies in a viticultural watershed in southern France, (2) numerically and spatially evaluate their effects under future climatic conditions, and (3) discuss the results with stakeholders.

Methods

We organized two sets of collective workshops, before and after a simulation phase. During the workshops, we designed four adaptation strategies that correspond to different ways to combine adaptation measures proposed by stakeholders. A spatially explicit model was used to evaluate the effects of six adaptation measures (late varieties, irrigation, reducing canopy size, adjusting cover cropping, reducing density, and shading) at field scale and combinations of them at watershed scale. Simulations were realized under a high-emissions climate change scenario RCP 8.5. Model-based evaluations were followed by discussions with stakeholders. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation strategies was estimated at farm scale using an indicator designed by the stakeholders.

Results and conclusions

The spatial combination of adaptation measures in a viticultural watershed provided options for adapting wine growing systems to climate change. A delayed harvest strategy with currently available late varieties provided only minimal relief from high temperature during ripening. A water stress limitation strategy would compensate for production losses if disruptive adaptations (e.g., reduced density) were adopted and if more vineyards were irrigated. A relocation strategy would encourage premium wine production in the constrained mountainous areas, where grapevines systems are historically adapted to limited water conditions. A soil improvement strategy was mentioned but not evaluated in the model due to scarce data and literature on the possible improvement of soil water holding capacity.

Significance

The sharing of knowledge between researchers, technical experts, and wine growers enabled the construction of a common understanding of the local impacts and adaptation potential to climate change in the watershed. In further research, this knowledge could help decision makers to define pathways for adaptive actions at farm scale.

中文翻译：

---

葡萄种植者如何适应气候变化？法国南部的参与式建模方法

语境

由于葡萄酒种植系统的高度多样性，气候变化以不同的方式威胁着葡萄酒种植系统，即使在当地也是如此。在设计和评估适应策略以更好地与这些不同的当地条件协调时，需要考虑这种多样性。

客观的

我们开发了一种参与式建模方法，以 (1) 在法国南部的葡萄栽培流域设计适应策略，(2) 从数值和空间上评估其在未来气候条件下的影响，以及 (3) 与利益相关者讨论结果。

方法

我们在模拟阶段之前和之后组织了两组集体研讨会。在研讨会期间，我们设计了四种适应策略，对应于不同的方式来组合利益相关者提出的适应措施。使用空间显式模型来评估六种适应措施（晚熟品种、灌溉、减少冠层大小、调整覆盖种植、降低密度和遮荫）在田间尺度以及在流域尺度上组合的效果。模拟是在高排放气候变化情景 RCP 8.5 下实现的。在基于模型的评估之后与利益相关者进行了讨论。使用利益相关者设计的指标在农场规模估计适应战略的成本效益。

结果和结论

葡萄栽培流域内适应措施的空间组合为葡萄酒种植系统适应气候变化提供了选择。目前可用的晚熟品种的延迟收获策略仅在成熟期间提供了对高温的最小缓解。如果采用破坏性适应措施（例如降低密度）并且灌溉更多的葡萄园，水分胁迫限制策略将弥补生产损失。搬迁战略将鼓励在受限制的山区生产优质葡萄酒，那里的葡萄藤系统历来适应有限的水资源条件。土壤改良策略由于缺乏关于可能提高土壤持水能力的数据和文献，在模型中被提及但未进行评估。

意义

研究人员、技术专家和葡萄酒种植者之间的知识共享有助于对流域气候变化的当地影响和适应潜力达成共识。在进一步的研究中，这些知识可以帮助决策者确定农场规模适应性行动的途径。