Previously the interannual variability of tropical cyclone genesis (TCG) in the Australian region has mainly been attributed to the climate variability in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this study, we found that the influence from climate variability in the Atlantic is of equal importance. Application of a state-of-the-art causality analysis reveals that the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and north tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are all causal to the Australian region TCG frequency. The associated physical mechanisms are investigated as well. Based on this causal analysis and inference, a statistical model is constructed to forecast TCG, using the Poisson regression and the step-by-step predictor selection method. The Atlantic causal factors, after being taken in as new predictors, help increase the forecast skill for the seasonal Australian region TCG by as much as 10% in terms of correlation increase and 40% in terms of root-mean-square error reduction.

此前，澳大利亚地区热带气旋成因 (TCG) 的年际变化主要归因于太平洋和印度洋的气候变化。在这项研究中，我们发现大西洋气候变率的影响同样重要。应用最先进的因果关系分析表明，大西洋经向模态 (AMM)、大西洋多年代际振荡 (AMO) 和北热带大西洋 (NTA) 海面温度 (SST) 异常都是澳大利亚地区 TCG 的因果关系频率。还研究了相关的物理机制。在此因果分析和推理的基础上，利用泊松回归和逐步预测变量选择方法构建了一个预测TCG的统计模型。大西洋的因果因素，