Introduction: Studies investigating latent alcohol use groups and transitions of these groups over time are scarce, while such knowledge could facilitate efficient use of screening and preventive interventions for groups with a high risk of problematic alcohol use. Therefore, the present study examines the characteristics, transitions, and long-term stability of adult alcohol use groups and explores some of the possible predictors of the transitions. Methods: Data were used from the baseline, 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-up waves of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 (NEMESIS-2), a representative study of Dutch adults aged 18–64 at baseline (N = 6,646; number of data points: 20,574). Alcohol consumption, alcohol use disorder (AUD), and mental disorders were assessed with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0. Latent Markov Modelling was used to identify latent groups based on high average alcohol consumption (HAAC) and AUD and to determine transition patterns of people between groups over time (stayers vs. movers). Results: The best fitting model resulted in four latent groups: one nonproblematic group (91%): no HAAC, no AUD; and three problematic alcohol use groups (9%): HAAC, no AUD (5%); no HAAC, often AUD (3%); and HAAC and AUD (1%). HAAC, no AUD was associated with a high mean age (55 years) and low educational level (41%), and no HAAC, often AUD with high proportions of males (78%) and people with high educational level (46%). Eighty-seven percent of all respondents – mostly people with no HAAC, no AUD – stayed in their original group during the whole 9-year period. Among movers, people in a problematic alcohol use group (HAAC and/or AUD) mostly transitioned to another problematic alcohol use group and not to the nonproblematic alcohol use group (no HAAC, no AUD). Explorative analyses suggested that lack of physical activity possibly plays a role in transitions both from and to problematic alcohol use groups over time. Conclusion: The detection of three problematic alcohol use groups – with transitions mostly between the different problematic alcohol use groups and not to the group without alcohol problems – points to the need to explicitly address both alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems (AUD criteria) in screening measures and interventions in order not to miss and to adequately treat all problematic alcohol users. Moreover, explorative findings suggest that prevention measures should also include physical activity.
Eur Addict Res

中文翻译：

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使用对成人一般人群进行的为期 9 年的随访研究，确定潜在的酒精使用群体和随时间的转变

简介：调查潜在饮酒群体和这些群体随时间转变的研究很少，而这些知识可以促进对饮酒问题高风险群体的有效筛查和预防干预。因此，本研究考察了成人酒精使用群体的特征、转变和长期稳定性，并探讨了转变的一些可能预测因素。方法：数据来自荷兰心理健康调查和发病率研究 2 (NEMESIS-2) 的基线、3 年、6 年和 9 年随访波，这是一项针对 18-64 岁荷兰成年人的代表性研究在基线（ N= 6,646；数据点数：20,574）。使用 Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 评估饮酒、酒精使用障碍 (AUD) 和精神障碍。潜在马尔可夫模型用于根据高平均饮酒量 (HAAC)和AUD 识别潜在群体，并确定人群之间随时间推移的过渡模式（停留者与移动者）。结果：最佳拟合模型产生了四个潜在组：一个没有问题的组（91%）：没有 HAAC，没有 AUD；和三个有问题的酒精使用组 (9%)：HAAC，无 AUD (5%)；无 HAAC，通常为 AUD (3%)；以及HAAC 和 AUD(1%)。HAAC，没有 AUD与高平均年龄（55 岁）和低教育水平（41%）相关，没有 HAAC，通常 AUD与高比例的男性（78%）和高教育水平（46%）的人相关。在整个 9 年期间，87% 的受访者——主要是没有 HAAC、没有 AUD的人——留在了他们原来的组。在推动者中，处于有问题饮酒组（HAAC 和/或 AUD）的人大多过渡到另一个有问题的饮酒组，而不是无问题饮酒组（无 HAAC，无 AUD ）). 探索性分析表明，随着时间的推移，缺乏身体活动可能在从和向有问题的酒精使用群体的转变中发挥作用。结论：检测到三个有问题的饮酒群体——主要在不同的有问题饮酒群体之间过渡，而不是没有酒精问题的群体——表明需要明确解决酒精消费和酒精相关问题（AUD 标准）筛查措施和干预措施，以便不错过并充分治疗所有有问题的饮酒者。此外，探索性研究结果表明，预防措施还应包括身体活动。
欧洲瘾君子研究所