We analyze the spatial–temporal dynamics of cultural vibrancy in the Swedish sub-region of Skaraborg. Our database consists of 4170 geo-localized cultural activities and facilities, mapped between October 2013 and March 2014. We make use of the TWC methodology for the dynamic simulation of the evolution of geo-localized activity starting from an observed distribution of events, and of the AutoCM ANN architecture to understand how cultural variables are related to the rest of the Skaraborg socio-economy. We find that cultural vibrancy in Skaraborg is likely characterized by a ‘flaring’ pattern of initial, widespread activity followed by a re-concentration into the main local urban hubs. The deep reason behind this unsuccessful developmental trajectory is the lack of centrality of cultural production in the local socio-economy, and of integration across cultural production sectors. This is in turn due also to structural bottlenecks of a non-cultural nature such as insufficient access of women to higher education. We make a case for the necessity to develop a new precision cultural policy design approach founded upon the science of complexity for both policy design and assessment, and we provide and illustrate a first technical toolkit to this purpose.

我们分析了瑞典斯卡拉堡次区域文化活力的时空动态。我们的数据库包含 2013 年 10 月至 2014 年 3 月之间绘制的 4170 个地理定位文化活动和设施。我们利用 TWC 方法从观察到的事件分布开始动态模拟地理定位活动的演变，以及AutoCM ANN 架构，以了解文化变量如何与 Skaraborg 社会经济的其他部分相关联。我们发现，斯卡拉堡的文化活力很可能以最初的广泛活动的“燃烧”模式为特征，然后重新集中到当地的主要城市中心。这种不成功的发展轨迹背后的深层原因是文化生产在当地社会经济中缺乏中心地位，以及跨文化生产部门的整合。这反过来也是由于非文化性质的结构性瓶颈，例如妇女接受高等教育的机会不足。我们证明有必要开发一种新的精确文化政策设计方法，该方法基于政策设计和评估的复杂性科学，我们为此目的提供并说明了第一个技术工具包。