Dynamic reliability based on the full time-history domain analysis is an important result of slope dynamic analysis when random factors are considered and also a useful tool to consider the strong coupling effect of seismic ground motions and nonlinear characteristics of rock and soil parameters. However, the effect of failure time associated with the first passage event in the time history process is seldom considered. To effectively evaluate earthquake-induced geological disasters, a probabilistic simulation method of slope stochastic dynamic reliability considering the randomness of seismic ground motions and the failure time is proposed. Clough and Penzien power spectrum model is used to simulate the non-stationary and random physical properties of seismic ground motions. Stochastic dynamic reliability analysis based on a coupling method of finite element method and limit equilibrium method (FEM-LEM) is performed considering the triggering mechanism of slope failure, integrated with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and first-passage theory to obtain probability density functions (PDFs) of factor of safety (FOS) and displacement indicators, and their fluctuation characteristics with time and different peak ground acceleration (PGA) levels. The results showed that dynamic reliability of slope in the whole seismic history may be overestimated when first passage event is not considered in the evaluation of slope nonlinear dynamic time-history stability. PDFs of FOS had a significantly non-Gaussian, and even skewed distribution during slope nonlinear failure process. Normal distribution hypothesis may be unreasonable when calculating dynamic reliability of FOS index and should be used carefully for slope system under strong seismic loading. Finally, slope stochastic dynamic reliability time-history curves based on first-passage event was obtained within safety domain to provide new perspective for the performance-based seismic design of slope engineering under different seismic fortification levels and needs.

基于全时程域分析的动力可靠性是考虑随机因素时边坡动力分析的重要结果，也是考虑地震动强耦合效应和岩土参数非线性特性的有用工具。然而，很少考虑与时程过程中第一次通过事件相关的失效时间的影响。为有效评估地震诱发的地质灾害，提出一种考虑地震动随机性和破坏时间的边坡随机动力可靠性概率模拟方法。Clough 和 Penzien 功率谱模型用于模拟地震地面运动的非平稳和随机物理特性。考虑边坡破坏的触发机制，结合蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）和首过理论，进行基于有限元法和极限平衡法（FEM-LEM）耦合的随机动力可靠性分析，得到概率密度函数安全系数 (FOS) 和位移指标 (PDF) 及其随时间和不同峰值地面加速度 (PGA) 水平的波动特征。结果表明，在评估边坡非线性动力时程稳定性时，如果不考虑首次穿越事件，可能会高估边坡在整个地震历史中的动力可靠性。在边坡非线性破坏过程中，FOS 的 PDF 具有显着的非高斯分布，甚至呈偏态分布。正态分布假设在计算 FOS 指数动态可靠性时可能不合理，在强地震荷载作用下的边坡系统中应谨慎使用。最后，在安全域内获得了基于首过事件的边坡随机动力可靠性时程曲线，为不同抗震设防等级和需求下边坡工程的性能化抗震设计提供了新的视角。