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Epidemic outbreaks with adaptive prevention on complex networks
Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2022-09-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2022.106877
Diogo H. Silva , Celia Anteneodo , Silvio C. Ferreira

The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic model, in which the epidemiological perception of the environment can adapt the behavior of susceptible individuals towards preventive behavior. Two rules, depending on local and global epidemic prevalence, for the spread of the epidemic in heterogeneous networks are investigated. We present the results of both heterogeneous mean-field theory and stochastic simulations. The former does not predict a shift of the epidemic threshold, neither with global nor with local awareness. In simulations, however, local awareness can significantly raise the epidemic threshold, delay the peak of prevalence, and reduce the outbreak size. Interestingly, we observed that increasing the local perception rate leads to less individuals recruited to the protected state, but still enhances the effectiveness in mitigating the outbreak. We also report that network heterogeneity substantially reduces the efficacy of local awareness mechanisms since hubs, the super-spreaders of the SIR dynamics, are little responsive to epidemic environments in the low epidemic prevalence regime. Our results indicate that strategies that improve the perception of who is socially very active can improve the mitigation of epidemic outbreaks.



中文翻译:

复杂网络上具有适应性预防的流行病爆发

采取预防态度,例如社会隔离和使用口罩,以减轻流行病的爆发,很大程度上取决于民众的支持。在这项工作中,我们研究了一个易感-感染-恢复 (SIR) 流行病模型,其中对环境的流行病学感知可以使易感个体的行为适应预防行为。根据当地和全球流行病流行率,研究了流行病在异构网络中传播的两条规则。我们展示了异质平均场理论和随机模拟的结果。前者不预测流行阈值的变化,无论是全球意识还是地方意识。然而,在模拟中,本地意识可以显着提高流行阈值,延迟流行高峰,并减少爆发规模。有趣的是,我们观察到提高本地感知率会导致受保护国家招募的人数减少,但仍能提高缓解疫情的有效性。我们还报告说,网络异质性大大降低了本地意识机制的功效,因为集线器是 SIR 动态的超级传播者,在低流行病流行状态下对流行病环境几乎没有反应。我们的研究结果表明,提高对谁在社交上非常活跃的认知的策略可以改善流行病爆发的缓解。我们还报告说,网络异质性大大降低了本地意识机制的功效,因为集线器是 SIR 动态的超级传播者,在低流行病流行状态下对流行病环境几乎没有反应。我们的研究结果表明,提高对谁在社交上非常活跃的认知的策略可以改善流行病爆发的缓解。我们还报告说,网络异质性大大降低了本地意识机制的功效,因为集线器是 SIR 动态的超级传播者,在低流行病流行状态下对流行病环境几乎没有反应。我们的研究结果表明,提高对谁在社交上非常活跃的认知的策略可以改善流行病爆发的缓解。

更新日期:2022-09-10
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