The cryptocurrency market is an emerging market that is characterized by intense volatility and therefore the study of its dynamics presents increased interest. The present work investigates the issue of the critical dynamics of a financial complex system approaching a crash, by using the Method of Critical Fluctuation (MCF) which is known for its ability to uncover critical dynamics. Specifically, we study the recent crash that took place in the cryptocurrency market (starting on 12 May 2021), by analyzing the “Contracts for Difference” (CFDs) prices on Bitcoin/USD (Bitcoin to US-Dollar exchange rate) at five different high frequency trading time intervals (60, 30, 15, 5 and 1 min). The results show that, for the 60-min and 30-min sampling intervals, a specific sequence of indications is identified, in agreement to the evolution towards extreme events in other complex systems, such as earthquakes. This sequence of indications isn't maintained as the sampling frequency is increased. Notably, the existence of critical dynamics during the system's evolution has been detected both in equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium by means of the same analysis method (MCF). The obtained results indicate that the MCF could provide useful information for portfolio analysis and risk management.

加密货币市场是一个新兴市场，其特点是剧烈波动，因此对其动态的研究引起了越来越多的兴趣。目前的工作通过使用以发现关键动态能力而闻名的关键波动方法 (MCF) 来研究接近崩溃的金融复杂系统的关键动态问题。具体来说，我们通过分析五种不同的比特币/美元（比特币兑美元汇率）的“差价合约”（CFD）价格来研究最近发生在加密货币市场的崩盘（从 2021 年 5 月 12 日开始）高频交易时间间隔（60、30、15、5 和 1 分钟）。结果表明，对于 60 分钟和 30 分钟的采样间隔，确定了特定的指示序列，这与其他复杂系统（例如地震）中向极端事件的演变一致。随着采样频率的增加，该指示序列不会保持不变。值得注意的是，通过相同的分析方法（MCF）在平衡和非平衡状态下检测到系统演化过程中临界动力学的存在。所得结果表明，MCF 可以为投资组合分析和风险管理提供有用的信息。