This article develops a small-scale evolutionary agent-based model to investigate the interplay between heterogeneous agents, institutions and technological change. By acknowledging the concept of behavioural dispositions, we differentiate between changers, neutrals, and deniers. The composition of the population is endogenously determined taking into account that reasoning is context-dependent. As we increase the degree of interaction between agents, a bi-modal distribution with two different basins of attraction emerges: one around an equilibrium with the majority of the population supporting innovative change, and another with most agents being suspicious of innovation. Neutral agents play an important role as an element of resilience. Conditional on their share in equilibrium, an increase in the response of the respective probability functions to growth results in a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation, followed by the emergence of persistent fluctuations. Numerical experiments on the basin of attraction also reveal the birth of an additional periodic attractor. A long-run cycle of technological and institutional change may coexist with locally stable fixed points. Our results indicate that economies are more likely to be path-dependent than what conventional approaches usually admit.

本文开发了一个基于小规模进化代理的模型来研究异质代理、制度和技术变革之间的相互作用。通过承认行为倾向的概念，我们区分了改变者、中立者和否认者. 考虑到推理依赖于上下文，人口的组成是内生的。随着我们增加代理人之间的互动程度，出现了具有两种不同吸引力盆地的双峰分布：一种是与大多数人支持创新变革的平衡，另一种是大多数代理人对创新持怀疑态度。中性剂作为恢复力的一个要素发挥着重要作用。以它们在平衡中的份额为条件，相应概率函数对增长的响应增加导致超临界 Hopf 分岔，随后出现持续波动。吸引力盆地的数值实验也揭示了一个额外的周期性吸引子的诞生。技术和制度变革的长期循环可能与局部稳定的固定点共存。我们的结果表明，与传统方法通常承认的相比，经济体更可能是路径依赖的。