We examine the effect of temperature shocks on the proclivity to be in energy poverty and combine our estimates with simulated weather data to predict the effect of global warming on the incidence of energy poverty over the rest of the century. To do so, we match representative household panel data for Australia with weather data at a geographically localized level. We find that each additional ‘cold day’ (average temperature below 15 °C) increases the incidence of energy poverty by 0.01%–0.03%, compared to if the day had been in the comfortable temperature range (20-24 °C). We find that global warming can be expected to result in modest decreases in the extent of energy poverty in the short-medium and long-run. Most studies have emphasized the economic and social costs of climate change. Our findings are important in pointing to a specific outcome for which climate change may be beneficial for a large country with a relatively mild climate.

我们研究了温度冲击对能源贫困倾向的影响，并将我们的估计与模拟天气数据相结合，以预测全球变暖对本世纪剩余时间能源贫困发生率的影响。为此，我们将澳大利亚的代表性家庭面板数据与地理本地化水平的天气数据进行匹配。我们发现，与一天处于舒适温度范围（20-24°C）相比，每增加一个“寒冷的日子”（平均温度低于 15°C），能源匮乏的发生率就会增加 0.01%–0.03%。我们发现，预计全球变暖将导致短期和长期能源贫困程度的适度下降。大多数研究都强调气候变化的经济和社会成本。